Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump visit China by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d69cc559693ee46ba58da16e43c4e75b8da67b99c2e9a9d2f72bb0222d0f137
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $549,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $418,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $549,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 35,981$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.79 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19de…442fbacked Yes | 2c | 32,184$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…caf8backed Yes | 2c | 22,757$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd054…11aebacked Yes | 4c | 19,275$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Yes | 3c | 17,516$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…1d0abacked Yes | 0c | 8,285$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…6068backed Yes | 1c | 7,884$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 0c | 6,906$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b5…7a7bbacked Yes | 1c | 6,808$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 6,590$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.67 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…2123backed Yes | 1c | 5,907$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed Yes | 2c | 5,429$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,910$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.15 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8d…7367backed Yes | 5c | 4,830$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.61 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf758…5d83backed Yes | 5c | 3,756$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…8471backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x687e…de8bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,849$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,636$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.63 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed Yes | 1c | 2,568$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d1…0405backed Yes | 1c | 2,113$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c4…1481backed Yes | 2c | 2,108$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 1c | 2,022$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,007$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…9f03backed Yes | 1c | 1,955$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f58…5993backed Yes | 1c | 1,927$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,622$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…61ffbacked Yes | 1c | 1,569$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,504$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966a…458dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,419$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb9…bb10backed Yes | 2c | 1,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…81e9backed Yes | 1c | 1,244$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 2c | 1,242$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 2c | 1,143$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 2c | 1,035$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1191…f6a8backed Yes | 2c | 950.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a5…f1a0backed Yes | 2c | 906.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6bd…b05abacked Yes | 2c | 790.26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef1f…7397backed Yes | 6c | 769.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbb…ce4abacked Yes | 2c | 683$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1763…8e41backed Yes | 6c | 606.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c2…69eebacked Yes | 2c | 585.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…04babacked Yes | 4c | 549.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ade…1c09backed Yes | 2c | 467.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe055…8281backed Yes | 6c | 351.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 4c | 298.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump visit China by October 31?this page
- Will Trump visit China by April 30?No won
- Will Trump visit China by June 30?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by March 31?No won
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by May 31?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.