Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump visit China by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xffff6c984d7adab19e799c46d1a478d5ab6483479b41f9639d04617f07a8bab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,369,639
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,567,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,369,639 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,311 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89dc…31fcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,631,366$23,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,607.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…04b2backed Yes | 0c | 218,311$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 134,946$4,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,773.36 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 5c | 124,036$5,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,585.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…43b8backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…9572backed Yes | 68c | 90,400$61,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61,795.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 3c | 86,538$2,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,949.94 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 21c | 57,746$12,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,175.74 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 1c | 55,750$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$762.88 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4b…5ea1backed Yes | 1c | 55,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb1…ea72backed Yes | 50c | 52,266$26,310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26,310.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2e8dbacked Yes | 1c | 50,500$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$757 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c48…1b89backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 3c | 39,402$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.32 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe946…4cc4backed Yes | 5c | 39,342$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45e0…fb31backed Yes | 54c | 38,584$20,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,796.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc7…18a1backed No | 46c | 37,964$17,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,462.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 31c | 37,305$11,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,457.62 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50e4…fb34backed Yes | 1c | 35,010$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff2…2be4backed Yes | 2c | 33,119$539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…8519backed Yes | 1c | 32,475$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcde…b75ebacked Yes | 0c | 29,700$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e4…72e3backed Yes | 11c | 28,916$3,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,095.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked Yes | 2c | 27,912$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4a…4896backed Yes | 0c | 27,834$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x608c…fab9backed Yes | 0c | 24,490$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a9…4d64backed Yes | 22c | 24,440$5,307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,306.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +140.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 36c | 23,767$8,661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,660.81 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 4c | 20,110$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.39 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…6c9ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b69…4f7fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,990$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8693…31cdbacked Yes | 0c | 19,972$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c0…6f73backed No | 50c | 19,132$9,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,578.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd423…d8b1backed Yes | 4c | 18,828$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb4…7b57backed Yes | 49c | 17,623$8,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,647.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474d…12edbacked No | 63c | 16,264$10,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,074.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 8c | 16,147$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.95 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6182…788ebacked Yes | 8c | 15,695$1,217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,217.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…27d0backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…1247backed Yes | 0c | 14,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…c320backed No | 41c | 13,915$5,722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,192.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5de…5d72backed No | 46c | 12,983$5,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,015.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…e964backed Yes | 43c | 12,917$5,578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,577.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9182…3368backed Yes | 58c | 12,846$7,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,475.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked No | 33c | 12,483$4,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,420.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde74…535bbacked Yes | 2c | 12,364$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9095…50cfbacked Yes | 0c | 11,860$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf051…8d98backed Yes | 0c | 11,535$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 19c | 10,279$1,921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920.93 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…8aa6backed Yes | 1c | 10,200$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 52c | 10,084$5,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,208.05 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…61d5backed No | 50c | 10,082$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,081.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x501b…5aebbacked Yes | 1c | 10,070$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…a2e3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9620…5052backed Yes | 5c | 10,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edd…e514backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517c…e3fcbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 65c | 10,000$6,512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,487.63 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5a…d227backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 27c | 9,999$2,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,666.39 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 45c | 9,999$4,453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,452.72 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…2b42backed No | 44c | 9,989$4,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,589.31 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Yes | 33c | 9,818$3,191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,190.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85af…a6ebbacked Yes | 4c | 9,688$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7528…4e36backed Yes | 4c | 9,669$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…e304backed Yes | 0c | 9,600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 78c | 9,520$7,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,094.52 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 5c | 9,266$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.12 | 137 | 14.6%20 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 2c | 9,252$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.6 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c52…225ebacked Yes | 0c | 9,125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1708…44b7backed Yes | 4c | 9,000$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x181b…5f7bbacked Yes | 0c | 9,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 2c | 9,000$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62fa…88a3backed Yes | 2c | 8,902$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5d…103dbacked Yes | 2c | 8,900$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 48c | 8,633$4,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,512.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb675…3d65backed Yes | 61c | 8,561$5,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,210.85 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9164…be4fbacked Yes | 1c | 8,533$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5d…e74dbacked Yes | 4c | 8,415$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Yes | 21c | 8,000$1,670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,670.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 5c | 8,000$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.15 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 26c | 7,904$2,035 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,034.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…a996backed No | 78c | 7,868$6,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,704.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc821…6a7ebacked No | 28c | 7,544$2,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,450.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a6…6e3fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3d…bf10backed Yes | 4c | 7,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9875…056bbacked Yes | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbab…21eebacked Yes | 1c | 7,454$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 21c | 7,402$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,521.31 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28b9…a995backed No | 40c | 7,133$2,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,292.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5a…2e45backed Yes | 26c | 7,093$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 53c | 7,043$3,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,745.16 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked No | 74c | 7,011$5,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,806.68 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d4…8e51backed No | 26c | 6,963$1,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,139.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa221…2a0fbacked Yes | 4c | 6,566$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf3…fe8fbacked Yes | 3c | 6,300$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 21c | 6,299$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.34 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…312fbacked No | 70c | 6,281$4,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,872.56 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef27…381bbacked Yes | 2c | 6,272$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump visit China by March 31?this page
- Will Trump visit China by April 30?No won
- Will Trump visit China by June 30?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by May 31?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by May 8?No won
- Will Trump visit China by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.