Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump visit China by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaacff0f7424b38e61ee5c5b2ea9d7335d0553eca2afb874267cd94c54a11925
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,339,354
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,395,253
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,339,354 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 966 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 107,130$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.97 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 3c | 105,928$3,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,697.09 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +193.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 0c | 55,759$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.04 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked No | 27c | 53,504$14,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,652.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 4c | 44,295$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,938.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…61f9backed No | 30c | 40,000$12,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,999.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e6…1dc2backed Yes | 77c | 37,395$28,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,761.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dee…8ad7backed No | 19c | 35,056$6,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,827.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 3c | 33,414$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.06 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd89…7a8bbacked No | 19c | 31,649$5,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,980.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 1c | 28,792$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.93 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 8c | 26,729$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +169.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked No | 4c | 25,767$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.45 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0068…382abacked No | 0c | 22,286$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…b8f8backed No | 0c | 21,033$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked No | 0c | 20,459$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x925a…5373backed No | 0c | 20,042$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b71…8044backed No | 1c | 19,941$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ef…0424backed No | 17c | 19,489$3,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,407.9 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d50…1006backed No | 0c | 19,226$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked No | 0c | 18,641$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.61 | 49 | 0%0 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc821…6a7ebacked No | 16c | 18,225$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 77c | 18,011$13,821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,190.21 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed No | 0c | 16,667$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x121e…7751backed No | 1c | 16,190$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked No | 10c | 16,038$1,644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.06 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 12c | 15,913$1,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,882.02 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf8…7651backed No | 4c | 13,958$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.66 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 1c | 13,187$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.35 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 11c | 12,705$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,445.65 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed No | 0c | 12,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 79c | 11,978$9,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,557.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 24c | 11,383$2,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,761.92 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 70c | 10,540$7,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,209.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 15c | 10,493$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.27 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf94…d616backed No | 1c | 9,452$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480f…c911backed No | 2c | 8,796$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…baa0backed No | 3c | 8,706$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked No | 0c | 8,662$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 3cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 8c | 8,036$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.19 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 19c | 7,714$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 4c | 7,688$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.82 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d8…756abacked No | 1c | 7,684$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 7,400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked No | 20c | 7,328$1,495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,495.32 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 79c | 7,076$5,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.64 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3a…0255backed No | 0c | 6,651$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…971abacked No | 4c | 6,569$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 11c | 6,539$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.78 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x589c…c048backed No | 16c | 6,462$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,042.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +115.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…5d2dbacked No | 5c | 6,411$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 11c | 6,100$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.58 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 13c | 6,000$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.47 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…5104backed No | 17c | 5,985$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 24c | 5,569$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.19 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…6fd9backed No | 14c | 5,514$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa941…10dcbacked No | 8c | 5,326$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7144…6624backed No | 3c | 5,305$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 75c | 5,141$3,858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 19c | 5,119$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.04 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc73…1492backed No | 18c | 5,108$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b3…6aefbacked No | 17c | 5,070$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08f8…f66fbacked No | 8c | 5,006$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed No | 0c | 5,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7553…7819backed No | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…dd3dbacked No | 1c | 4,954$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…aa15backed No | 4c | 4,947$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 75c | 4,821$3,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,192.4 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae70…abfbbacked No | 9c | 4,780$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a42dbacked No | 17c | 4,718$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 75c | 4,440$3,311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.54 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked No | 18c | 4,388$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.08 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddf…a602backed No | 15c | 4,377$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed No | 17c | 4,370$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.89 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb435…04a3backed No | 24c | 4,200$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed No | 6c | 4,094$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.07 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -89.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…a981backed Yes | 76c | 4,001$3,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d7…c2bfbacked No | 8c | 4,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 12c | 3,643$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5195…fce5backed No | 18c | 3,555$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d92…108abacked No | 1c | 3,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…183cbacked No | 19c | 3,380$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc3…f054backed No | 27c | 3,371$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 7c | 3,275$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.41 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8340…6f7bbacked No | 15c | 3,221$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f9…e09dbacked No | 10c | 3,121$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 80c | 3,100$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 9c | 3,074$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.68 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebf…5bfabacked No | 21c | 3,043$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…8dfcbacked No | 1c | 3,034$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…6b11backed No | 11c | 3,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e0…2b65backed No | 6c | 3,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…febfbacked No | 1c | 3,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed No | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe699…8dc2backed No | 4c | 2,956$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2094…6166backed No | 25c | 2,917$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4312…e301backed Yes | 75c | 2,917$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$729.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 7c | 2,889$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…630dbacked No | 25c | 2,870$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a33…9bc0backed Yes | 75c | 2,870$2,152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump visit China by June 30?this page
- Will Trump visit China by April 30?No won
- Will Trump visit China by March 31?No won
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by May 31?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by May 8?No won
- Will Trump visit China by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.