Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump visit China by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48fbf70c1713e71a405052bc4641e26dbba435fa557672c4040763c901cbf606
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,827,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,429,613
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,827,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 3,295 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6bd…6a35backed Yes | 3c | 1,489,628$38,841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,840.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 5c | 87,302$4,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,596.12 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 5c | 82,121$4,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,330.73 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4682…4d40backed Yes | 1c | 73,156$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1260…07cebacked No | 75c | 70,358$52,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,369.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 2c | 60,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$919.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8f…e1ebbacked Yes | 28c | 58,382$16,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,343.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 37c | 56,652$20,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,739.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…377fbacked Yes | 30c | 56,325$17,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,999.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 5c | 56,057$2,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,924.57 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +16.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 52,936$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.37 | 333 | 13.2%44 W · 289 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 70c | 49,807$34,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,106.61 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 0c | 40,976$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.98 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…42d8backed Yes | 3c | 38,190$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 11c | 34,995$3,883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,882.87 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0f…38e7backed Yes | 1c | 34,498$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 31c | 33,610$10,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,520.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -73%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…31fcbacked Yes | 1c | 31,527$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 27c | 31,219$8,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,920.57 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 22cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ad…69dfbacked No | 78c | 30,578$23,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,599.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…127dbacked Yes | 1c | 30,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 29,594$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.19 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2b…f091backed No | 14c | 28,898$4,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,833.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +255.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b4…61f9backed Yes | 33c | 26,585$8,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,782.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8497…85f3backed Yes | 2c | 26,000$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1370…2cfdbacked Yes | 72c | 24,808$17,930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,929.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 63c | 24,487$15,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,511.29 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…6143backed No | 75c | 23,729$17,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,004.69 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 72c | 23,227$16,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,528.99 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…2e8dbacked Yes | 30c | 22,816$6,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,932.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed No | 48c | 22,572$10,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,644.92 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked No | 59c | 22,516$13,316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,200.33 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2207…247abacked Yes | 29c | 22,411$6,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,505.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed Yes | 7c | 22,090$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 19c | 21,778$4,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,080.92 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 1c | 21,091$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.63 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbef6…f2f9backed Yes | 3c | 20,787$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +227.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8693…31cdbacked Yes | 1c | 20,705$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc821…6a7ebacked No | 29c | 20,459$5,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,569.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 20,109$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe454…011cbacked No | 16c | 20,101$3,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,803.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +509.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked No | 69c | 20,000$13,865 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,134.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…a38ebacked No | 69c | 19,943$13,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,184.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e7…e4b3backed Yes | 4c | 19,831$768 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$768.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb44b…3fdbbacked Yes | 1c | 19,464$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5de…5d72backed No | 66c | 18,420$12,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,333.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…cbacbacked Yes | 17c | 18,353$3,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,140.76 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a41…242abacked No | 30c | 18,224$5,458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,765.89 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 2c | 17,930$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.71 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e37…67efbacked Yes | 29c | 17,929$5,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,119.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c0c…fbb7backed No | 57c | 17,790$10,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,727.37 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecef…558abacked Yes | 57c | 17,424$9,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,943.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f7…5758backed Yes | 2c | 16,893$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcdd…73a5backed Yes | 42c | 16,831$7,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,095 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 66c | 16,805$11,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,656.03 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 3c | 16,306$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.97 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 29c | 16,193$4,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,706.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 12c | 16,175$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.08 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…224ebacked No | 62c | 15,940$9,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,099.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 15,690$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.18 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa57d…ba16backed Yes | 1c | 15,408$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…2b42backed No | 61c | 15,402$9,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,959.69 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 21c | 15,309$3,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,286.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff4e…5502backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…0be8backed Yes | 78c | 14,994$11,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,630.42 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed No | 30c | 14,714$4,476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,237.48 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 15c | 14,213$2,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,119.88 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd814…7f65backed Yes | 20c | 14,049$2,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,871.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…5e2abacked Yes | 1c | 14,027$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…fbe9backed Yes | 24c | 13,862$3,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,326.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed Yes | 60c | 13,825$8,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,293.41 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 2c | 13,572$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.4 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…5433backed No | 69c | 12,805$8,891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,913.65 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…ca2dbacked Yes | 2c | 12,601$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes | 3c | 12,179$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d24…c632backed Yes | 3c | 11,829$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 9c | 11,680$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,621.82 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 76c | 11,645$8,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,792.28 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 30c | 11,555$3,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,467.83 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 11,442$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.7 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed Yes | 2c | 11,223$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 4cpaid | +103.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…aecebacked No | 80c | 11,100$8,829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,271.51 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…0be9backed No | 64c | 11,098$7,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,041.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…ac10backed Yes | 38c | 11,053$4,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,224.59 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 2c | 11,000$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…a397backed Yes | 31c | 10,846$3,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,321.93 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbcd…49a5backed Yes | 0c | 10,500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c30…c42ebacked Yes | 1c | 10,383$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa01f…16b9backed Yes | 14c | 10,369$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4642…21d3backed Yes | 2c | 10,344$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de3…765fbacked Yes | 25c | 10,321$2,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,601.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee49…fc0dbacked Yes | 77c | 10,294$7,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,969.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 2c | 10,171$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf731…91abbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1a…a6cbbacked No | 24c | 9,966$2,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,574.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 21c | 9,874$2,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,047.86 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 9,852$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.11 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa976…4ad6backed Yes | 1c | 9,613$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 60c | 9,400$5,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,604.26 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump visit China by April 30?this page
- Will Trump visit China by June 30?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by March 31?No won
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by May 31?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by May 8?No won
- Will Trump visit China by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.