Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65f204a8ebbaa472d668cc4fdbe4dd45249405a7e0acea43b7930a216e5bfdc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,068,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,425,952
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,068,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,000 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc336…02abbacked No | 0c | 2,000,000$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 4cpaid | +371.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5297…7b99backed No | 0c | 1,117,918$3,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,710.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…b8f8backed No | 1c | 782,000$6,572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,572 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad2b…f091backed No | 1c | 754,261$5,598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,597.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +255.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 2c | 711,284$11,732 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,732.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +193.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa43a…94b2backed No | 1c | 508,386$7,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,175.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682e…70bdbacked No | 0c | 300,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…5919backed No | 2c | 169,983$2,603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,603.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8284…86f0backed No | 0c | 150,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c97…ea22backed No | 0c | 121,114$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf396…ed0dbacked No | 1c | 115,544$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 1c | 110,063$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.54 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24fc…9fd4backed No | 1c | 105,345$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4b…3c6dbacked No | 1c | 104,716$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.25 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 1c | 100,710$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.15 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…d4ecbacked No | 0c | 100,684$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed No | 4c | 97,507$3,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,787.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1945…5e5fbacked No | 0c | 96,790$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…15a3backed No | 0c | 89,180$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…feebbacked No | 1c | 80,246$841 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 3cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ac…c7e2backed No | 1c | 78,717$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 1c | 74,589$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480f…c911backed No | 1c | 71,625$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$764.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…b1f1backed No | 1c | 68,344$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af4…0597backed No | 2c | 65,462$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…7b51backed No | 11c | 57,194$6,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,264.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c4…9b0ebacked No | 1c | 56,823$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd201…78b3backed No | 1c | 56,587$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked No | 2c | 55,519$1,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,370.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fb…77c2backed No | 0c | 54,286$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f45…7569backed No | 0c | 51,855$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked No | 2c | 50,050$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.27 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac7…eb8dbacked No | 0c | 46,540$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x105b…950fbacked No | 0c | 45,840$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf4…0c55backed No | 1c | 44,054$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b4…e428backed No | 0c | 42,800$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 1c | 42,310$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.1 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf823…79e1backed No | 0c | 40,705$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca5d…0d4ebacked No | 0c | 38,780$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6c…aaf2backed No | 0c | 37,790$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 12c | 37,602$4,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,399.04 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…703fbacked No | 1c | 37,139$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x121e…7751backed No | 1c | 35,302$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…65bebacked No | 1c | 34,890$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…30eebacked No | 0c | 33,619$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…fba3backed No | 11c | 33,483$3,594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,593.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba61…4d0ebacked No | 15c | 32,750$4,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,982.27 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeede…6b98backed No | 0c | 31,930$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61e8…7a3bbacked No | 28c | 31,689$8,961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,961.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1c…c75abacked No | 0c | 30,230$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad55…b87abacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d7…18f8backed No | 7c | 29,710$2,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,104.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe191…df7ebacked No | 1c | 29,360$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 29,150$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.9 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3196…043bbacked No | 1c | 29,113$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5b…d4ecbacked No | 2c | 28,561$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 3c | 27,012$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.27 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed No | 1c | 25,714$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +29%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…8218backed No | 1c | 25,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…6283backed No | 1c | 24,015$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 12c | 23,617$2,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,764.77 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x692c…e293backed No | 17c | 23,552$3,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,928.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4d…f155backed No | 5c | 23,200$1,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,058.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50b…917dbacked No | 2c | 22,861$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 14c | 22,611$3,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,246.3 | 119 | 36.1%43 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54b1…fdc1backed No | 0c | 22,330$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf048…a58fbacked No | 12c | 22,265$2,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,612.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked No | 1c | 22,252$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x448e…cbacbacked No | 0c | 21,700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf8…7651backed No | 0c | 21,328$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 5cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06c…9d93backed No | 2c | 21,299$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.62 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8b…10a6backed No | 1c | 21,228$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7278backed No | 1c | 21,000$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a96…8f44backed No | 17c | 20,670$3,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,581.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…0be9backed Yes | 75c | 20,574$15,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,175.41 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6be2…4c5cbacked No | 2c | 20,318$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a2…5384backed No | 1c | 20,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2835…2b42backed Yes | 75c | 19,947$15,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,946.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…2c57backed No | 36c | 19,844$7,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,161.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 22c | 19,839$4,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,451.47 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 67c | 19,638$13,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,383.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b40…88e0backed No | 0c | 19,483$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e6…1965backed No | 1c | 19,412$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 25c | 19,214$4,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,752.1 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 14c | 19,023$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,624.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe77b…82edbacked No | 1c | 18,701$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c9…e4b3backed No | 4c | 18,568$790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b1…0d17backed No | 0c | 17,960$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc977…c4b8backed No | 1c | 17,380$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c9…9626backed No | 0c | 17,268$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked No | 0c | 17,224$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…c035backed No | 12c | 17,113$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe09d…4d10backed No | 1c | 16,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1260…07cebacked Yes | 69c | 16,607$11,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,105.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 10c | 16,500$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce8…6fa8backed No | 1c | 15,825$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b8…39c3backed No | 0c | 15,472$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked No | 26c | 15,099$3,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,926.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d64…2830backed No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5907…3b88backed No | 0c | 15,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump visit China by May 15?this page
- Will Trump visit China by April 30?No won
- Will Trump visit China by June 30?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by March 31?No won
- Will Trump visit China by May 31?Yes won
- Will Trump visit China by May 8?No won
- Will Trump visit China by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.