TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5973…5e13

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
138
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Us Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Us Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT9116.5%15 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Middle East — the 91 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.53
Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.62
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.08
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.3
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+820%+$1,142.4
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+583.2%+$73.38
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.61
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$132.26
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$129.96
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+703.4%+$2,079.28
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$208Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$208
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,677Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,676.58
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,877Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+58.3%+$1,678.08
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.93
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+375.5%+$1,018.94
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$280Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+150.2%+$420.01
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.58
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.83
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.83
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$170.89
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$251Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$251.23
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.92
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$992Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$992.06
Showing 25 of 91 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1952.6%10 W · 9 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+15.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$249Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$249.2
Will Trump visit China by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$180
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,425Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+53.4%+$761.69
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$4,476Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+228.7%+$10,237.48
Pam Bondi out as Attorney General by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+82.8%+$149.75
Will Trump visit China by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$541Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+204.2%+$1,103.72
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.08
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$72.28
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+69.5%+$69.49
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+300%+$150
Will the government shutdown end November 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+132.6%+$66.28
Will Trump say "Gaza" or "Israel" during Australia PM events on October 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 20, 2025, EDT+25%+$36.8
Will Trump visit Israel by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+62%+$31.02
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Switzerland in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Trump send the national guard to Chicago?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$31.58
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+168.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by May 16 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.63
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.98
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$996Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+100.7%+$1,003.15
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$792Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$792.02
Will the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell be dropped by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+132.8%+$299.68
Will Donald Trump announce a new nominee for Chair of the Federal Reserve by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$318Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+1,754.3%+$5,584.63
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40.5
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$341Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$341.31
Will Powell say "Comment" during September press conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT+25.2%+$25.2
All 9 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.97
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$650
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.68
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$926Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$925.59
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$267.99
Will Iran strike East–West Crude Oil Pipeline by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+53.7%+$72.71
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$1,650Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,650
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$451Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$451.27
All 9 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+114.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$495Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+118.7%+$587.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+66.7%+$66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuclear weapon detonation by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.06
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-04-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Seahawks vs. Patriotsbacked Patriots · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$21.05
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.