Middle East · resolved market
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74f2d481b3b5dfffbd5f1d3984535aacb0ce1f14b371a7f130861cbf2a1de4f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $64,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked Yes | 6c | 5,518$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.42 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…ec2fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,747$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…2c2dbacked Yes | 12c | 4,135$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.34 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed Yes | 16c | 4,110$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.85 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,957$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,798$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.92 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,830$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x233b…1f2cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,639$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.1 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…a16dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,583$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.25 | 161 | 25.5%41 W · 120 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…006ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,557$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,300$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.13 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 18c | 1,200$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…fe44backed Yes | 6c | 861.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08eb…9ca4backed Yes | 8c | 827.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 20c | 805$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.54 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 7c | 689.77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 631.45$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.05 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed Yes | 6c | 618.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 602.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x298f…1601backed Yes | 17c | 600$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…2385backed Yes | 7c | 561.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 14c | 477.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 360 | 35.3%127 W · 233 L | -30.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1877…78d7backed Yes | 13c | 391.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a20…394fbacked Yes | 3c | 390$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 14c | 319.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b5…d249backed Yes | 13c | 318.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 6c | 313.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 8c | 303.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 17c | 276.55$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0262…d7b6backed Yes | 8c | 263.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed Yes | 4c | 250.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 19c | 250$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5973…5e13backed Yes | 17c | 202.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.53 | 91 | 16.5%15 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5255…6e58backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 7c | 172$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 181 | 35.9%65 W · 116 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 8c | 160.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed Yes | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 8c | 138.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…8003backed Yes | 11c | 113.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44fc…ac29backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 99.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 97.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 76c | 90.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 12c | 90$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5c…f9c6backed Yes | 18c | 65.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…c548backed Yes | 17c | 63.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83ba…d05dbacked Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -7.1wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?this page
- Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Abdel Fattah el-Sisi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will King Abdullah II attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mohammed bin Salman attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Recep Tayyip Erdogan attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Shehbaz Sharif attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
- Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.