TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x28b2…eb4f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
316
Categories scored
23
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 58 out of 100; worst Tennis at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT14339.2%56 W · 87 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-28.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 143 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.93
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.14
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 27, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$189Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$188.7
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.21
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$60.5
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+63.7%+$244.82
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$518Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$182
Will any AI model reach 1550 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+76.5%+$212.81
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$416Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.5%+$176.71
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,387Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$1,163.25
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$524Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$524.24
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.53
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$69.3
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$793Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+28.6%+$227.07
Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.15
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,818Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$647.39
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$2,619Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+45.7%+$1,195.66
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,583Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+34.1%+$539.48
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$378Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$378.34
Will OpenAI have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.48
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$496Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+44.7%+$222.06
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$460Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$460.45
Will OpenAI have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.03
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$392Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+63.8%+$250.5
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$596Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$596.29
Showing 25 of 143 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT5251.9%27 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 52 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.35
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.25
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$158Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.23
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$153.05
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.83
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$273Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$74.35
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$5,304Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+90.5%+$4,801.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,020Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+145.1%+$1,479.95
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$14,460Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+102.6%+$14,832.84
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$773Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$395.86
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,599Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+40.4%+$646.59
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$393Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+161%+$633.61
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$2,643Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,642.96
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$390.9
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,054Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,054.5
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$288Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$287.58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$3,381Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,380.79
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+96.9%+$256
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+116.7%+$188.5
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.51
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$556Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+50.8%+$282.08
Showing 25 of 52 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT3545.7%16 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-32.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$108.57
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.3
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$155Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$154.75
Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$73.22
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$183
Will Russia capture Rodynske by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$67.93
Will Russia capture all of Myrnohrad by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$180Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+122.2%+$220
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$321.02
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$134.48
Will Russia recapture territory in Vilne by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16.18
Will Russia capture Rodynske by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$598Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$598.14
Ukraine Tomahawk missile strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,542Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+30.3%+$770.16
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$273Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$272.68
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+33.3%+$100
Will Donald Trump say "Biden's war" during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+48.2%+$99.55
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$11.83
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by January 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST+48.1%+$32.5
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$204.42
Will Russia capture any territory in Lyman by December 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$144Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+38.9%+$56
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$991Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+25.2%+$249.91
Will Russia capture Shakhove by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$475Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+47.2%+$223.9
Will Russia enter Huliaipole by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+35.5%+$63.43
Will Russia capture Rodynske by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$369Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+64.2%+$237
Will Russia enter Lyman by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$247Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+45.5%+$112.55
Will Trump talk to Putin by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$38.64
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kimi Antonelli finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$39.12
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,414Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+34%+$480.35
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$353Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$352.7
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$495Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+98.4%+$487.19
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2025 F1 Brazilian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$72
Will McLaren win the 2024 F1 Constructor’s Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,687Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+27.6%+$465.16
Will Ferrari win the 2024 F1 Constructors Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$134.77
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,711Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST+41.5%+$709.32
Will Oscar Piastri win the Italian Grand Prix?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT+94.5%+$164.63
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-15%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump declares a national emergency by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+75.4%+$11
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$201Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+49%+$98.7
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$178Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$178.05
Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+33.2%+$41.63
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$80
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST+34.9%+$122.03
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$77
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2024, EST+72.4%+$21.72
All 9 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick43cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+37%+$32.88
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,137Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+50.1%+$570.19
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$133Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+178.6%+$237.2
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$5,593Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$1,865.23
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$135.4
Will Rafał Trzaskowski or Karol Nawrocki win Mazowieckie?backed Nawrocki · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$43
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2025, EDT+233.3%+$322
All 8 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick28cpaid+195.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-42.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+36.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Chess — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST4100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+63.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2025, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+44%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-49.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lana Del Rey pregnant in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$50
New Diddy charges before November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$200
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+256.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$1,404Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+256.2%+$3,596.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$158.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$100
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.