TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,924,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,334,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,924,515 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 317 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x395d…21ebbacked No0c3,845,323$17,385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,385.3570%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b4a…1942backed No0c500,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c84…7e97backed No0c237,343$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd15b…a7fdbacked No0c152,289$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed No0c137,480$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.5432029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa3…da4abacked No0c115,543$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6667…f5efbacked No0c104,984$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddfb…359fbacked No0c103,426$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.241323.1%3 W · 10 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick7cpaid+124.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2533…3932backed No0c79,570$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53f6…9c7dbacked No1c70,668$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14d2…c1fdbacked No0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1574…8b9dbacked No0c50,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b4…c103backed No0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5305…b518backed No0c47,142$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c68…87abbacked No0c44,840$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8430%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ce…07adbacked No0c43,755$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1eca…1deabacked No0c33,673$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2730%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c31,000$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31610%0 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca67…c864backed No0c30,835$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7ab…4e66backed No0c30,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda5b…b308backed No0c27,834$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0d4…679ebacked No0c25,508$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8831…084ebacked No0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…40e0backed No0c24,970$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22ac…8000backed No0c24,082$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b3b…2959backed No0c23,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84b7…deefbacked No0c23,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1a…aceabacked No0c22,221$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.811729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-59.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed No0c21,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b62…cadfbacked No1c20,410$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12530%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x503d…cd16backed No1c20,021$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13050%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b84…ccf2backed No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa922…f461backed No2c19,722$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.8420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4b9…beedbacked No0c19,600$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fce…7c24backed No0c17,935$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x127e…aea2backed No0c16,750$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf68…928dbacked No0c15,578$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x372b…2edabacked No0c14,823$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4960%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xffb8…b577backed No0c14,072$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-81.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb7…1bdbbacked No0c14,000$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x675a…3fbfbacked No3c13,846$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.08333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick7cpaid+126.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10df…328fbacked No0c12,490$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5117…49b3backed No0c12,000$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29140%0 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0668…7349backed No0c11,375$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5526…0456backed No0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a5…a523backed No1c10,983$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8630%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2ac…67b8backed No0c10,333$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3160%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa89…a673backed No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1060%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f3…1d41backed No0c10,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0994…89f0backed No0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x699a…8e8abacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa839…376dbacked No1c10,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c9,982$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.511,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e2…b7bebacked No0c9,929$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.86560%3 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick18cpaid+186.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No0c9,887$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.196530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe780…6982backed No1c9,569$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21fa…f616backed No0c8,960$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80ee…f0d1backed No2c8,846$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16060%0 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabb…8ae3backed No0c8,511$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5927…7cacbacked Yes40c8,395$3,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,014.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83a4…f1d8backed No1c8,333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed No0c8,156$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3264…5cefbacked No2c7,882$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e11…be8ebacked No0c7,354$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7493…a38fbacked No0c7,102$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x226b…82bebacked No0c6,890$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd6e…2782backed No0c6,800$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d9…6986backed No0c6,669$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fc7…5d3abacked No0c6,447$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x674b…f1afbacked No0c6,356$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x461b…ca27backed No0c6,203$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a5…5d20backed No0c5,650$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae44…b7fbbacked No0c5,609$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed No14c5,482$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762.582128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93d2…3240backed No4c5,461$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.4520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce4…9a6cbacked No1c5,357$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca1…48aebacked No0c5,333$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1f7…6a03backed No0c5,086$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb5…b1f3backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd661…41bcbacked No0c5,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0092…5533backed No3c4,435$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2436…1858backed No79c4,429$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc372…dda1backed No1c4,427$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed9…2deebacked No0c4,343$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed No1c4,123$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.92293.4%1 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-86.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x833d…3156backed No1c4,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b95…bf2fbacked No0c3,908$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94bf…3f5fbacked No1c3,814$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0560%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f9…d397backed No0c3,750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a17…7c9cbacked No0c3,750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ee3…fae7backed No47c3,528$1,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,658.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df7…8dd0backed No0c3,476$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-44%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x73fc…0494backed No6c3,452$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.8130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40fa…bd0fbacked No0c3,390$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No5c3,366$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.75827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ee…3d48backed Yes35c3,340$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,157.75771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+468.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed No3c3,152$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+31.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed No9c3,123$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.16520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-53.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec69…cbe5backed No3c3,039$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed No2c3,000$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.982412.5%3 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.