TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,725
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,638

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,725 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe598…a0a8backed Yes75c1,210$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.63663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcaa8…6c7cbacked Yes53c557.89$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.595444.4%24 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed Yes79c554.98$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.551050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52f9…e1c7backed No21c480.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22eb…7d8dbacked No36c400$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1421520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No63c390.2$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.6119236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a75…5271backed Yes61c386.31$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+103.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…b395backed No75c333.82$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.732937.9%11 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xba0d…c462backed No25c304.25$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.12850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+18.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No67c282.43$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.932445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed No63c262.43$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.072259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Yes46c254.84$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13810145.5%46 W · 55 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1551…2b86backed Yes15c234.46$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.171030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee8b…6436backed No68c209.99$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.51346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick67cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes24c208.78$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.3933313.2%44 W · 289 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa84d…5d71backed No64c200$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1281428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick39cpaid+146.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c76…8d1cbacked Yes69c199.99$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked Yes16c197.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.31757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+59.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No60c197.49$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.936540%26 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec85…8ba8backed Yes46c186.22$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.172433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x528a…f94abacked Yes73c184.44$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.61580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2be3…f77cbacked Yes72c183.32$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes27c181.48$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.481816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-57.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes20c181.15$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.614027.5%11 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaae7…605fbacked Yes40c177.94$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a5…9de7backed Yes28c166.22$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.893935.9%14 W · 25 L+9.5wins+0.24per pick12cpaid+185%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes28c164.84$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.3918425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes23c155.38$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.625050%25 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xefc1…dfcdbacked No76c152.58$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.911030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-48%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x366c…6578backed No22c149$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.851643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-21.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d72…c356backed Yes12c142.19$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.192556%14 W · 11 L+7.9wins+0.32per pick24cpaid+320%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked No18c140.83$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.147751.9%40 W · 37 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick40cpaid+50.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked No56c122.38$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-46%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b06…9076backed No39c121.8$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.943540%14 W · 21 L-6.2wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-33.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xf673…be20backed Yes17c117.84$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.842250%11 W · 11 L+7.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+303.8%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No12c105.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55e4…bf8abacked Yes45c103.33$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.83837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-27.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.1514528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1ba6…3f82backed Yes39c93.58$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.39520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-48.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ee…3d48backed No70c89.5$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.76771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick39cpaid+468.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd8d3…ff72backed No60c83.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.311910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-83.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed No73c80$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+21.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33e5…1c91backed Yes74c78.37$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.43100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f6f…5754backed No59c77$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa24…5a9ebacked Yes41c77$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes41c75.62$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8513556.3%76 W · 59 L+13.4wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4e51…7ee7backed Yes40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No58c74.44$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.1869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd3a…68a9backed Yes27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.07955.6%5 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.38per pick18cpaid+201%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x548e…3834backed Yes59c72.62$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8032…7c6cbacked No43c68.97$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes25c65.37$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.281546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75a1…b40ebacked No62c56.45$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No51c56.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9424035.4%85 W · 155 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-30.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No24c56.15$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4414935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2457…b193backed No50c56.06$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28110%0 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes18c56$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.76736.8%5 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+36.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e74…b428backed No76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa52f…12edbacked Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-38.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed No53c49.29$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes42c47.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.624837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes58c47.62$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202025%5 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked No42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202015%3 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.121,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No41c43.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.054447.7%21 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+91%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc571…d6f1backed No69c40$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick69cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5779…168dbacked No27c38.46$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.382128.6%6 W · 15 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-42.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No65c38.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.886756.7%38 W · 29 L-7.5wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-17.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa6da…b2cdbacked Yes59c37.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes46c35.83$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.3344111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No74c35.45$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2310135.6%36 W · 65 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bf1…294fbacked No49c34.6$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid+108.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x951a…6866backed Yes59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f64…9138backed Yes59c33.9$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked No36c33.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.845042%21 W · 29 L+4.6wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe1d…219ebacked Yes47c31.91$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.91333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-29.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes54c31.25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3732626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…980fbacked Yes78c25.58$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-57.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6f7…250dbacked Yes40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+55.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No77c24$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5296319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No47c22.74$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7933627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No71c20.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.273989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb98a…0550backed Yes76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.8425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-67.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No69c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.825241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc436…76c9backed No80c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed No72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.43053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1757…bd49backed Yes61c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a4…bf2dbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.39per pick18cpaid+1,617.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeac5…aadbbacked Yes79c13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.