TailMyPicks
Market

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,790
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$74,139

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,790 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes42c10,918$4,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,376.318425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No0c7,951$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.071,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No76c3,831$2,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,906.3119236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2f31backed No7c2,858$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.05128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-81.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked No76c2,741$2,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,074.618444%37 W · 47 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes24c2,714$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,062.3711428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c2,600$2,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,031.9869634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0afc…e1e4backed No69c2,500$1,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,725633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.31per pick65cpaid-54.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No21c2,459$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.3511419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes19c2,248$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.7416544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No76c2,157$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.4910055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9978…a49ebacked Yes21c2,148$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,696.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No80c2,019$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.388536.5%31 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28d5…8433backed Yes21c1,910$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,509.521844.4%8 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+43.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes19c1,851$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.997254.2%39 W · 33 L+6.2wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed No70c1,729$1,219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.572718.5%5 W · 22 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-59.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb6db…b117backed Yes13c1,317$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick8cpaid+291.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes60c1,256$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.5541238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4502…ce2fbacked No80c1,166$928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$927.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No77c1,058$815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.665442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x64c3…1fefbacked Yes23c1,003$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.724100%4 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+255.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No73c931.36$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.4599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x285f…58b2backed Yes30c917.88$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+228%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked Yes25c800$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6004339.5%17 W · 26 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes29c786.26$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.574027.5%11 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1770…b3d9backed Yes20c747.25$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick11cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes9c648.72$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.5555618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c622.35$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.2556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x02f0…d710backed No75c612.94$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.711330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick60cpaid-52.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7f8e…d6ecbacked No79c600$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No78c600$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46839522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes17c578.86$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.941861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+27.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3fe…23abbacked Yes33c570.99$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+205.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x410c…b808backed No76c526.32$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001154.5%6 W · 5 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick26cpaid+366.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes21c499.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39619328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533a…db4dbacked Yes13c498.77$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+283.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes21c480$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.22924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No20c468$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6517633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes24c416.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.678030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes29c402.14$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2875844.8%26 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No71c400$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28415238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x35cd…d5a5backed Yes19c399.95$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes18c393.23$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.4510950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3751…7dfdbacked No3c375.1$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.25540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No71c346.2$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.0937533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9833…0b32backed Yes32c311.7$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5858…7b42backed No77c309.74$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.52665.4%17 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce06…9a1ebacked Yes31c309.52$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.521936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick27cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes27c300$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21918725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x38ae…672fbacked Yes34c293.11$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+193.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf21a…b6e3backed No72c275.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c260.13$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.711,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0dc7…d48ebacked No77c249.99$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.49425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-54.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd5bb…7d81backed Yes28c248.12$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+252.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe51…e86cbacked Yes21c238.1$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2efa…5bf0backed No79c238.1$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No72c236.49$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.274843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed No70c209.21$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.452564%16 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick65cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x586a…1cafbacked No69c204.08$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.93425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fc1…13aabacked Yes25c202.04$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.531353.8%7 W · 6 L+4.0wins+0.30per pick23cpaid+211.8%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x3602…b407backed Yes23c200$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1542653.8%14 W · 12 L+4.7wins+0.18per pick36cpaid+48.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6711…7d95backed No72c200$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1441553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick34cpaid+62.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x62b4…5381backed Yes32c187.5$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes30c186.73$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.0312533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d09…1decbacked Yes21c160$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed No73c157.25$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.292642.3%11 W · 15 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-36.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes23c150.66$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.796546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2bc6…6043backed No74c145.72$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fda…59b3backed No75c133.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.45per pick65cpaid-70.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd15b…ce17backed No80c125.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100944.4%4 W · 5 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick67cpaid-33.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26df…8211backed Yes32c125$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No76c110.98$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9712631.7%40 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x639e…a9d4backed Yes18c110.42$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.42475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.47per pick28cpaid+307.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcebd…3769backed No74c109.75$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.611952.6%10 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-20.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes29c108.93$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6418516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x906a…f4bbbacked Yes30c106.45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+66.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No73c103.69$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.045961%36 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044a…a5acbacked Yes21c100$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7013216.7%22 W · 110 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid+19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd757…94aabacked Yes21c95.24$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.244845.8%22 W · 26 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75f1…072ebacked Yes21c94.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.55540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+51.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdef…b15ebacked Yes16c93.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3264…db8abacked Yes27c91.29$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+265.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b4…6057backed Yes33c90.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+203%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9875…c12abacked Yes34c90$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+194.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f30…f260backed Yes31c81.38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.38425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-18.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca52…0cdfbacked No75c80$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2a8…34f5backed Yes30c79.99$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.59560%3 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.31per pick29cpaid+54.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc7a5…92e0backed Yes29c78.8$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.81136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+80.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa99b…65cdbacked Yes28c78.57$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.872100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+216.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes27c75.74$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.9412839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8600…ff1dbacked Yes23c74.72$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.53650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+70.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dfa…ce5dbacked No67c74.63$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502552%13 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x461d…c081backed Yes23c74.13$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.13875%6 W · 2 L+3.5wins+0.43per pick32cpaid+179.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6622…d7a9backed No75c72.31$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71a8…3b90backed Yes29c68.97$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c6…5390backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+45.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc230…6192backed Yes18c60$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.23060%18 W · 12 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+36.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x897a…b17ebacked No78c53.24$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.661735.3%6 W · 11 L-6.3wins-0.37per pick73cpaid-53%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2748…6a07backed Yes29c51.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.721050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+24.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.