TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,497
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$35,422

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,497 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes9c2,336$199 inWon+$2,136.9814241.5%59 W · 83 L+9.3wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed Yes79c1,202$945 inWon+$257.713663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x22eb…7d8dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost-$101520%3 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed Yes4c1,000$40 inWon+$9604850%24 W · 24 L+9.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+346.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c664.76$33 inLost-$33.091,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes3c596.65$20 inWon+$577.119236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3f1…bdc6backed Yes71c504.21$358 inWon+$145.791850%9 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes69c493.74$339 inWon+$154.844182.9%34 W · 7 L+10.5wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+42%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes5c311.16$16 inWon+$295.221428.5%12 W · 130 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No11c225.22$25 inLost-$2533627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No24c221.8$54 inLost-$53.6214935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes12c200$24 inWon+$176.3814528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1453…959dbacked Yes12c168.46$20 inWon+$148.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+321.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes12c166.67$20 inWon+$146.674837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb35…54eebacked Yes12c166.67$20 inWon+$146.67475%3 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.65per pick10cpaid+637.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9445…9ce6backed Yes8c142.44$11 inWon+$131.17520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+152.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd8b…5945backed Yes10c137.15$13 inWon+$124.031540%6 W · 9 L+3.9wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+124.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No18c129.29$23 inLost-$22.7544111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No16c100$16 inLost-$166540%26 W · 39 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No54c73.11$40 inLost-$39.833618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x22f0…ae31backed Yes80c60$48 inWon+$12.061553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No47c60$28 inLost-$28.23923.1%9 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.