Us Politics · resolved market
Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x251cb9d773ea8a7b27eddd1fc5b6f7c745c1e91c937a9aafb69e70d8c806fb04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,983
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,983 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 25c | 5,848$1,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,458.28 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2f31backed No | 0c | 5,016$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,862$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,452.66 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +7.8wins | +0.22per pick | 15cpaid | +177.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 1c | 1,773$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 32c | 1,694$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.73 | 130 | 29.2%38 W · 92 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed No | 69c | 1,610$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,113.32 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 76c | 1,249$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.84 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed No | 76c | 800$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.03 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked No | 69c | 487$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.73 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 26c | 460.44$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 31c | 412.15$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.39 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 57c | 388.77$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.89 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 25c | 380.5$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.93 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 350$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 31c | 344.01$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.36 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26b1…fd74backed Yes | 32c | 312.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes | 36c | 275.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.04 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 78c | 214$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.1 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 35c | 205$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 14c | 201.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.95 | 74 | 28.4%21 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 66c | 188.35$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed No | 68c | 165.36$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.02 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -23%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d49…eb59backed No | 72c | 164.31$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 67c | 145.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -6.4wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3421…5cafbacked No | 67c | 141.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a3…06a2backed No | 68c | 139$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 27c | 122.06$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.7 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 120.6$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 76c | 106.42$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.26 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc7…d48ebacked No | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed No | 65c | 87.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.89 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c03…12b2backed Yes | 35c | 75.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 34c | 74.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…f499backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…5077backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195b…57e8backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 59.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd2…8af8backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +143.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2748…6a07backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed No | 72c | 55.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.19 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…904fbacked No | 70c | 44.28$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 71c | 41.18$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked No | 78c | 40.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfa…ce5dbacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…5cb0backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…6a78backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 185 | 16.2%30 W · 155 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…aaf5backed No | 68c | 29.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.3wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…01b5backed No | 68c | 29.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda9d…96a7backed No | 66c | 25.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 78c | 22.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.9wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files?this page
- Will Al Gore be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Alan Dershowitz be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Alec Baldwin be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Anderson Cooper be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Barack Obama be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Bernie Sanders be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Bill Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Chuck Schumer be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will David Copperfield be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will David Koch be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Donald Trump be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Ehud Barak be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Ellen Degeneres be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Henry Kissinger be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Hillary Clinton be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Jamie Dimon be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Jay-Z be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Jimmy Kimmel be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Joe Biden be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Justin Trudeau be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Kevin Spacey be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Kirsten Gillibrand be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Larry Page be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Michael Jackson be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Oprah Winfrey be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Piers Morgan be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Prince Andrew be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Quentin Tarantino be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Rachel Maddow be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Robert Downey Jr. be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Sean Combs be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Stephen Colbert be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?Yes won
- Will Tom Hanks be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
- Will Tony Blair be named in newly released Epstein files?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.