TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,983 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4e25…d7a7backed No25c5,848$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.2817633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2f31backed No0c5,016$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.76128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-81.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked Yes22c1,862$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,452.663537.1%13 W · 22 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+177.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No1c1,773$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7311419.3%22 W · 92 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes32c1,694$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.7313029.2%38 W · 92 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No69c1,610$1,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,113.3219236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No76c1,249$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.8469634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No76c800$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.0310055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked No69c487$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.733357.6%19 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No26c460.44$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7696319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes31c412.15$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.3915032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes25c400$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30012910.9%14 W · 115 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-44.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes57c388.77$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.8918425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes25c380.5$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.9310749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No73c350$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes31c344.01$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.3612533.6%42 W · 83 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b1…fd74backed Yes32c312.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.48475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick40cpaid+82.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5f8…1affbacked Yes36c275.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.042326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No78c214$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.111541.7%48 W · 67 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-0.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes35c205$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.73023.3%7 W · 23 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes14c201.1$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.957428.4%21 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes16c200$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16819328.5%55 W · 138 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ec…1dadbacked No66c188.35$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.875961%36 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed No68c165.36$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.024843.8%21 W · 27 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5d49…eb59backed No72c164.31$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed No67c145.97$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982642.3%11 W · 15 L-6.4wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-36.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x3421…5cafbacked No67c141.92$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.67742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32a3…06a2backed No68c139$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.521020%2 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-68.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes27c122.06$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.725241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes25c120.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.0299629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No76c106.42$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.2612631.7%40 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0dc7…d48ebacked No72c100$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72425%1 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick67cpaid-54.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x74e0…fabdbacked No76c100$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762222.7%5 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-4.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed No65c87.52$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.893129%9 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-49.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c03…12b2backed Yes35c75.16$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.646235.5%22 W · 40 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes34c74.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.32055%11 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1756…f499backed Yes17c70$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf0d…5077backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x195b…57e8backed Yes30c66.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.67616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c59.39$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.181,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7bd2…8af8backed Yes34c58.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+143.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2748…6a07backed Yes35c57.14$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.141050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+24.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3fc…1e14backed No72c55.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404837.5%18 W · 30 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+27.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1088…b813backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367724.7%19 W · 58 L-6.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-41.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes23c47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.191,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked No70c44.28$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.985438.9%21 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No71c41.18$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.244751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked No78c40.81$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.835844.8%26 W · 32 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dfa…ce5dbacked No67c37.31$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252552%13 W · 12 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+33.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5210…5cb0backed No73c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.91450%7 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf694…6a78backed No68c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes38c30$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7118516.2%30 W · 155 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd45…aaf5backed No68c29.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-4.3wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x55d8…01b5backed No68c29.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.81450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda9d…96a7backed No66c25.35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.66per pick66cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No78c22.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3819638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No72c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.440%0 W · 4 L-2.9wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 39 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.