TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5210…5cb0

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
71
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: AI, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 56 out of 100; worst Lol at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1450%7 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$7.51
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$120
U.S. Closes Airspace due to Government Shutdown?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+35.1%+$26
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+44.9%+$15.5
US government shutdown in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60.23
Will Bill Gates be named in newly released Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$21.9
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.79
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+47.1%+$22.63
Will Stephen Hawking be named in Epstein files?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$7.8
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$9.87
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" 7 or more times during the announcement?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$171
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2025, EST+63.9%+$26.32
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT1080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+25%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+109%+$54.49
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+70.4%+$70.2
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+37%+$36.99
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$135.2
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+61.3%+$7.6
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+40.8%+$20.3
Will Google have the top AI model on July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$18.85
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2025, EDT+28.2%+$6.6
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.79
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT+49.3%+$6.6
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$158Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$42.2
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$43
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+75.4%+$75.44
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+131.8%+$79.06
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+25%+$15
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$23
All 9 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.30per pick68cpaid-50.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Lol — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 8, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2025, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2025, EDT+42.9%+$6.6
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
All 3 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jan 21, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5)backed FC Barcelona · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+88.7%+$35.47
Will FC Bayern München win on 2025-11-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+42.9%+$12.86
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Jan 31 - Feb 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2025, EST-100%-$130.64
Will POTUS tweet 10-14 times Jan 22-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+26.6%+$8.67
All 2 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST+58.7%+$58.71
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2024, EST-100%-$198.26
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 7, 2025, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2025 US Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$43.2
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+70.7%+$14.13
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $7 million?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$87Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+35.1%+$30.42
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Poland win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ohio State win the 2026 College Football National Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$60.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will reconciliation bill be passed by July 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.