Ukraine · resolved market
Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by June 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6bf947b873f428f82fa793f1b51a8c505683177e6d07e355681ae77bc96a093c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $198,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,887
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc372…dda1backed No | 1c | 17,411$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76fb…c306backed Yes | 74c | 12,118$8,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,141.38 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed No | 22c | 7,507$1,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,672.06 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 22c | 7,381$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,590.39 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 20c | 6,595$1,321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.99 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed No | 6c | 6,395$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.1 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 6c | 5,000$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304 | 90 | 5.6%5 W · 85 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 3c | 4,058$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 75c | 3,413$2,562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.49 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes | 72c | 3,115$2,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$876.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 11c | 3,051$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.71 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked No | 32c | 2,720$869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.14 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…d339backed No | 14c | 2,680$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 78c | 2,359$1,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.47 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 78c | 2,226$1,735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x54bc…7c98backed No | 17c | 2,110$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 20c | 2,092$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 79c | 2,090$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.11 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb432…97b0backed No | 28c | 2,076$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 15c | 1,854$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 17c | 1,640$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.51 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd17…b69dbacked No | 12c | 1,625$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x450c…416fbacked No | 8c | 1,553$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa810…fd25backed Yes | 73c | 1,359$990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.33 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…e4bdbacked No | 19c | 1,141$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8756…b36cbacked No | 23c | 1,100$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.7 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 39c | 1,017$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.15 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 19c | 1,016$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.24 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…8f9ebacked No | 13c | 935$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…94e5backed No | 11c | 920$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 76c | 915$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…e674backed No | 29c | 911.98$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked No | 5c | 909.56$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8002…8b6cbacked Yes | 79c | 906.09$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372a…7201backed Yes | 75c | 884.01$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 26c | 880.27$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.87 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked No | 20c | 868.52$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.83 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1b…d598backed No | 27c | 861.92$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 12c | 850.54$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.84 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed Yes | 63c | 843.2$534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.06 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b6…57b7backed No | 21c | 819.51$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 10c | 799.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09f7…a365backed No | 29c | 793.68$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 28c | 792.97$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 40c | 744.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 34c | 742.87$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 54 | 22.2%12 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 19c | 702.27$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.69 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 15c | 671.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.21 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9065…9511backed No | 25c | 650$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…7447backed Yes | 72c | 645.87$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked No | 49c | 555$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.71 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c2…9e2ebacked No | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a94…79e8backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 13c | 468.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 79c | 448.08$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.77 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 73c | 443.99$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 91 | 38.5%35 W · 56 L | +6.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8e…9383backed No | 18c | 403.01$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 29c | 396.23$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.67 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 68c | 350$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 65 | 18.5%12 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 66c | 334.96$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.36 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…886ebacked Yes | 78c | 320.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.84 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 72c | 309.37$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.74 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked Yes | 73c | 307.5$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0716…f036backed No | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdb…7358backed No | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc050…d232backed No | 51c | 291.9$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 13c | 287.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 30c | 275.6$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.55 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +6.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x580b…7b49backed No | 6c | 269.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked No | 36c | 269.45$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c9e…5dd0backed No | 27c | 260.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadaf…f9f2backed No | 8c | 260$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 75c | 260$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x674f…4aa8backed Yes | 78c | 231.69$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 63c | 230.76$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.46 | 97 | 34%33 W · 64 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 11c | 226.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed No | 25c | 223.52$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…55e3backed Yes | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.7 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x708d…ea78backed No | 28c | 193.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcced…9ffebacked No | 25c | 192.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked No | 9c | 190.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes | 70c | 189.51$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.46 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 18c | 189.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 19c | 187.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 200 | 26%52 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…1bbebacked No | 31c | 182.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 10c | 175$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa70…8f17backed No | 45c | 152.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.35 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 16c | 151$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…9684backed Yes | 70c | 143.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…b63dbacked No | 35c | 142.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…5cb0backed No | 27c | 140$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed No | 20c | 129.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4895…0a83backed No | 9c | 124.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed8c…e836backed No | 24c | 121.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5c…3912backed No | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5718…0756backed No | 29c | 115.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16e0…e891backed No | 17c | 115.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.