TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Russia x Ukraine prisoner exchange by June 15?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$198,743
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$201,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $198,743 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 152 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc372…dda1backed No1c17,411$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76fb…c306backed Yes74c12,118$8,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,141.382142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed No22c7,507$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,672.061811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-67.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No22c7,381$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,590.39712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No20c6,595$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.9910241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed No6c6,395$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.19413.8%13 W · 81 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-38%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No6c5,000$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304905.6%5 W · 85 L+0.3wins0.00per pick5cpaid-82.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No3c4,058$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.68927%24 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes75c3,413$2,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$850.493250%16 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Yes72c3,115$2,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed No11c3,051$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.712330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked No32c2,720$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869.1415125.2%38 W · 113 L+0.7wins0.00per pick25cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb311…d339backed No14c2,680$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes78c2,359$1,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.4726238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a25…81d1backed Yes78c2,226$1,735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.62462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54bc…7c98backed No17c2,110$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed No20c2,092$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.64714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-70.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes79c2,090$1,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.115036%18 W · 32 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb432…97b0backed No28c2,076$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed No15c1,854$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No17c1,640$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.512759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+79%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd17…b69dbacked No12c1,625$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x450c…416fbacked No8c1,553$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa810…fd25backed Yes73c1,359$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.332623.1%6 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe39f…e4bdbacked No19c1,141$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.2425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-60.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No23c1,100$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.71080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed No39c1,017$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.151631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No19c1,016$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.24419.8%4 W · 37 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-33.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d69…8f9ebacked No13c935$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.39540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-42.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebaa…94e5backed No11c920$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes76c915$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21623435.5%83 W · 151 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6df…e674backed No29c911.98$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked No5c909.56$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.12752.7%2 W · 73 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8002…8b6cbacked Yes79c906.09$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.19250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x372a…7201backed Yes75c884.01$659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-32.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No26c880.27$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.8726318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked No20c868.52$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.83205%1 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-86.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c1b…d598backed No27c861.92$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd75d…00c8backed No12c850.54$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.841650%8 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2884…d0c3backed Yes63c843.2$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.065356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2b6…57b7backed No21c819.51$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.43633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-22.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No10c799.98$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+101.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x09f7…a365backed No29c793.68$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked No28c792.97$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+43.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6512…5291backed No40c744.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003756.8%21 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No34c742.87$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505422.2%12 W · 42 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-51.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No19c702.27$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6925528.2%72 W · 183 L-17.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No15c671.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.215327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9065…9511backed No25c650$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a49…7447backed Yes72c645.87$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.7933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No49c555$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.7113230.3%40 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79c2…9e2ebacked No9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a94…79e8backed No20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No13c468.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7439429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes79c448.08$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.773933.3%13 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes73c443.99$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.889138.5%35 W · 56 L+6.9wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+67%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc8e…9383backed No18c403.01$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed No29c396.23$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.675632.1%18 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd632…8afbbacked Yes68c350$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.96518.5%12 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x094e…f10bbacked Yes66c334.96$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.364748.9%23 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7d4…886ebacked Yes78c320.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.841668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes72c309.37$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.7412937.2%48 W · 81 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe809…039bbacked Yes73c307.5$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.965850%29 W · 29 L+6.9wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+23.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0716…f036backed No31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefdb…7358backed No42c300$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.58666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc050…d232backed No51c291.9$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No13c287.46$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.895119.6%10 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No30c275.6$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.555843.1%25 W · 33 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x580b…7b49backed No6c269.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick43cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41c…ba2fbacked No36c269.45$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.651216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-54.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c9e…5dd0backed No27c260.28$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadaf…f9f2backed No8c260$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid+102.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes75c260$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.311020%2 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-61.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x674f…4aa8backed Yes78c231.69$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.71714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-81.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes63c230.76$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.469734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No11c226.17$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8617122.2%38 W · 133 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed No25c223.52$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.794746.8%22 W · 25 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked No13c200$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.34348.8%21 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+12%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe49e…55e3backed Yes77c200$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df6…ac3bbacked No26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526051.7%31 W · 29 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed No30c200$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.77736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x708d…ea78backed No28c193.57$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked No25c192.68$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.131457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01d6…bf6ebacked No9c190.1$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1870%0 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfb46…f68bbacked Yes70c189.51$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.468045%36 W · 44 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No18c189.35$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0511542.6%49 W · 66 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No19c187.02$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4720026%52 W · 148 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5c2…1bbebacked No31c182.29$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563745.9%17 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No10c175$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173119.4%6 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed No45c152.47$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.352268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x84fd…2f81backed No16c151$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.161421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick34cpaid-48.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2a0…9684backed Yes70c143.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.161250%6 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a1…b63dbacked No35c142.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502532%8 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5210…5cb0backed No27c140$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-44.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67a9…c417backed No20c129.97$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.552722.2%6 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-32.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4895…0a83backed No9c124.83$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed8c…e836backed No24c121.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.01366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf5c…3912backed No24c120$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.81861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+35.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5718…0756backed No29c115.75$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16e0…e891backed No17c115.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.