Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" 7 or more times during the announcement?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe891ffde8993870a2e87e34eb1a9e8fb9e9628f90f0260c16fa629a25db148c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 44c | 5,352$2,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.24 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 5c | 4,935$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.01 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 6c | 4,841$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.62 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 2c | 3,346$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7472…4febbacked Yes | 50c | 2,800$1,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 75c | 2,585$1,938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.15 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 46c | 2,406$1,098 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.58 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2584…1754backed Yes | 63c | 1,669$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 51c | 1,397$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.29 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed No | 45c | 1,159$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.89 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 45c | 964.01$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.36 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd543…b262backed No | 49c | 906.35$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 11c | 883.13$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.16 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 64c | 803.1$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.23 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4392…68c3backed Yes | 51c | 639.99$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.6 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 65cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b2…4e0cbacked Yes | 65c | 551.32$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.54 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 49c | 543.97$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed Yes | 52c | 539.14$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.17 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe20e…5998backed No | 36c | 519.99$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…05c6backed Yes | 51c | 507.38$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a90…265dbacked No | 37c | 500$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…5cb0backed No | 38c | 450$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf507…525bbacked Yes | 58c | 409.46$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.97 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 39c | 400.28$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.11 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 69c | 363.16$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed9a…a87bbacked Yes | 53c | 299.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.99 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 56c | 241.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.88 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 55c | 218.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.73 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 65c | 200$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3985…a6d8backed Yes | 63c | 196.9$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 75c | 176.92$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 136 | 73.5%100 W · 36 L | +28.4wins | +0.21per pick | 53cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 60c | 166.09$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…d070backed Yes | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.29 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1657…4068backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…f60dbacked Yes | 55c | 74.33$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…9c8bbacked No | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.1 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed No | 39c | 68.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…c5f9backed No | 53c | 58.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 63c | 54.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 59c | 51.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6238…57c8backed No | 52c | 48.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb02a…bde3backed Yes | 75c | 42.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2832…cef1backed Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" 7 or more times during the announcement?this page
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "Altman" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ellison" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "OpenAI" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oracle" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Texas" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "energy" 5 or more times during the announcement?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.