Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during the announcement?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0af2a16064fc585039af7ec4fc3c9856488308c3ead260b4a235330fe7719340
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 49c | 1,171$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.49 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 6c | 1,087$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.82 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf507…525bbacked No | 72c | 965.02$696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.27 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 41c | 964.42$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.63 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 35c | 588.79$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.23 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 77c | 423.85$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.22 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9a…a87bbacked Yes | 31c | 250$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.5 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4225…8476backed Yes | 70c | 198.09$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked No | 50c | 197$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 61c | 195.67$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…c171backed No | 56c | 159.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked Yes | 74c | 158.55$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 37c | 135.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 79c | 130$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.73 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 59c | 125$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 41c | 119.61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207a…6fecbacked Yes | 21c | 114.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.73 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x768a…c579backed Yes | 68c | 113.34$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a90…265dbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8b…e99fbacked No | 37c | 94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x267d…81e0backed Yes | 67c | 88.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 59c | 70.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.61 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x879b…2f18backed Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 51c | 40.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…dca1backed No | 33c | 40.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af4…89b4backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during the announcement?this page
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" 7 or more times during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Altman" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ellison" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "OpenAI" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oracle" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Texas" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "energy" 5 or more times during the announcement?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.