Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the announcement?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b5d40a02bf3190f244a6868df2b9df3b58c3d3c92a0eea082caa76755b259f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe52d…49c6backed Yes | 1c | 3,520$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 20c | 1,056$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.95 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 18c | 699$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.61 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed No | 71c | 516.52$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 119 | 40.3%48 W · 71 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 26c | 472.82$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.68 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 78c | 392.66$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.81 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50da…0b82backed Yes | 12c | 372.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 76c | 326.76$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.09 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…8ccdbacked Yes | 9c | 300$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3985…a6d8backed Yes | 29c | 262.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 22c | 260.46$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.83 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed9a…a87bbacked Yes | 21c | 226.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.14 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf507…525bbacked No | 71c | 226.77$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.52 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed No | 72c | 219.52$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02a…bde3backed Yes | 26c | 192$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 66c | 169.3$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 83 | 77.1%64 W · 19 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed No | 79c | 160.89$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes | 26c | 151.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d57…bd62backed Yes | 67c | 148.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…c4a8backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…40b7backed Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d21…28ddbacked Yes | 23c | 140$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…7112backed No | 73c | 139.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +7.0wins | +0.17per pick | 39cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 21c | 134.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf7…7acfbacked Yes | 40c | 123.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 29c | 120.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cdc…de34backed Yes | 29c | 104.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 78c | 100.24$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8258…f208backed No | 79c | 95.23$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +5.9wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x779c…4e9fbacked Yes | 26c | 76.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f9…bbe2backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc12…7c4fbacked Yes | 26c | 64.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadd4…af2ebacked Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…c5f9backed Yes | 21c | 61.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…f60dbacked Yes | 20c | 51.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 77c | 47.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397a…4d70backed Yes | 25c | 40.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…49febacked No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ca…1f54backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 30cpaid | -90.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the announcement?this page
- Will Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" 7 or more times during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Altman" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ellison" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "OpenAI" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oracle" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Texas" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "energy" 5 or more times during the announcement?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.