Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during the announcement?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa52765e11418f3fcc9364d245b9b376354dcfdc3dd3da82ae83241c59e518e41
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,647
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd59…5cd6backed Yes | 9c | 4,511$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed No | 23c | 510.89$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.61 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed9a…a87bbacked Yes | 27c | 500$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb572…9239backed Yes | 76c | 500$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 68c | 470$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.1 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde5…fd02backed Yes | 73c | 455$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 76c | 223.67$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.69 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf507…525bbacked No | 64c | 205$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…f801backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 76c | 80.87$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.46 | 161 | 44.7%72 W · 89 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked Yes | 76c | 78.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 71c | 61.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…24c3backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb02a…bde3backed Yes | 80c | 21.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump say "Elon Musk" during the announcement?this page
- Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "AI" or "artificial intelligence" 7 or more times during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Altman" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Ellison" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "MAGA" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "OpenAI" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Oracle" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "Texas" during the announcement?No won
- Will Trump say "TikTok" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during the announcement?Yes won
- Will Trump say "energy" 5 or more times during the announcement?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.