TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x8ebf…83ce

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
273
Categories scored
35
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: Commodities, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 57 out of 100; worst Music at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT7540%30 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 75 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.07
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.5
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$352.54
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.99
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.91
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.35
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.83
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.15
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.7
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+175.1%+$543.33
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+81.7%+$10.4
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+282%+$438.42
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.9
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.83
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$12
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$79.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$454Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$454.38
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$205Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$205
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$263.55
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.12
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$8,743Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$2,910.41
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+175.4%+$334.8
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,463Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+53.6%+$784.35
Showing 25 of 75 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT4242.9%18 W · 24 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Epstein suicide note released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$326Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$326.18
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.84
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$543Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+53.9%+$292.23
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$410Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$409.79
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$510Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+98.3%+$501.31
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$2,114Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+57.5%+$1,214.98
Epstein video removed from the DOJ website by Tuesday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+88.2%+$80.6
Will Trump admin release any Epstein files on December 18? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$72.51
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$25.85
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for less than 2 seconds on November 21 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$43.82
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$104.67
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+42.9%+$150
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$1,184Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$1,183.82
Prince Andrew loses Duke of York title by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.7
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$49.57
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$244.73
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$137.2
Israel military action against Iran in July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$4.96
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$19.85
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$831Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT+44.8%+$372.59
Trump's birthright citizenship ban unblocked before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2025, EDT+101.1%+$70.88
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$464Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2025, EDT-100%-$464
Will Iran strike a U.S. facility by Monday June  30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2025, EDT+245.4%+$578.91
Trump and Elon publicly reconcile by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$33
Elon out of Trump administration before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$3,536Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$3,535.93
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT2330.4%7 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+185%+$58.35
Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.16
Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$12.5
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,524Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+28.9%+$440.33
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.67
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–0.1%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.14
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.48
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$107.87
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$555Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+28.9%+$160.35
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$244Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$243.9
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote?backed Dan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$618Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$617.59
Will Loren Taylor win the Oakland mayoral race?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$121.87
Will Poilievre say "India" or "Indian" during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$39.2
Will Carney say "Tariffs" 3+ times during Canadian Election Debate on April 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2025, EDT+29.9%+$11.5
Will Trump impose 25% tariff on Mexico or Canada before February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$151Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$150.56
Will Dragan Primorac be the next President of Croatia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20.96
Yoon arrested by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2025, EST-100%-$201.94
Trudeau resigns by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$80
<180 MPs vote to impeach Yoon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$941Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST+25.1%+$236.48
180-199 MPs vote to impeach Yoon?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST-100%-$21.6
Will USR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$15.32
Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$11.2
All 23 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$51.08
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$325Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+53.8%+$175
Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+44.9%+$21.6
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 50% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$48.12
Will Google Gemini 3 score at least 40% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$98.13
Will Brian Armstrong say "Ethereum" 2+ times at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$56.56
Will Bianca Censori be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$817Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+26.3%+$214.96
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$11.44
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$746Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$745.83
Will anyone say "Open Source" during the OpenAI livestream on August 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$82
Will GPT-5 be released by August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$71.29
Will Musk say "Rare Earth" during the Q1 2025 Tesla earnings call?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2025, EDT+58.8%+$22.4
Will Elon respond to OpenAI today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2024, EST+44.9%+$6.2
All 14 picks, newest first.
Ukrainelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT1323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-57.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.47
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+185.7%+$195
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$1,457Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,456.77
Will Donald Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+36%+$7.26
Will Donald Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 10+ times during Ukraine President events on December 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$159.19
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$303Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$302.55
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump increase sanctions on Russia before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$45.46
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$78
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2025, EDT-100%-$92.86
Nothing Ever Happens backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$159.88
Will Trump sanction Russia before March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$301Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$300.61
All 13 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-48.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+173.1%+$247.18
Over $8M committed to the Trove public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$44.56
Over $80M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$257Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$257
Over $70M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$108.24
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$207Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$206.77
Over $90M committed to the Ranger public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,307Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+30.1%+$392.9
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$207Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+62.3%+$128.63
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$1,215Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,214.89
Over $1.2B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.5
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$96.59
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$68.14
All 11 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-3.2wins-0.32per pick42cpaid-86.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Music — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.48
Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.22
Will SZA release a new song in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$116.45
Will Taylor Swift x Travis Kelce podcast get between 10-15m views on day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$240.36
Will Sweden be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.94
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$176.8
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$102.5
Will Albania finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$399Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2025, EDT+32.8%+$130.91
Will Taylor Swift be the Billboard #1 pop star of the century?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$851Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2024, EST-100%-$851.49
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick43cpaid+76.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-51.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid+426.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2024, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-32.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 30, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Oct 25, 2025, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFClast resolved Aug 16, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Dec 28, 2024, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Syracuse vs. Washington Statebacked Washington State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2024, EST-100%-$18
Oklahoma vs. Navybacked Navy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2024, EST+123.4%+$127.1
South Florida vs. San José Statebacked South Florida · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2024, EST+43.3%+$61.29
All 3 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Aug 13, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+58.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick22cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-43.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul walk out to Real American by Rick Derringer?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+63.1%+$75.36
Will Jake Paul fight Logan Paul next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$186.06
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-26.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+242.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+242.9%+$113.34
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+241.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Northwestern State vs. Nicholls Statebacked Northwestern State · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$162Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2025, EST+241.2%+$390.73
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,279Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+28.4%+$363.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 18, 2024, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sergio Perez leave Red Bull?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$688Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 18, 2024, EST+25%+$172.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Chess Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2024, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Chess — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Chess, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Daniil Dubov win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2024, EST-100%-$13.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
T20 Series France vs Luxembourg: France vs Luxembourg - Completed match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$37.32
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Aug 7, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Doug Polk’s win his “Every Starting Hand” Challenge?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.91
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.