Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for less than 2 seconds on November 21 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5b3144b2a056e38c3b843a6312d54ead10e13bad269a33c0939ced248cfcee1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,452
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 5c | 2,986$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.78 | 93 | 1.1%1 W · 92 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -94.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…a883backed Yes | 58c | 2,635$1,516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd164…538ebacked No | 5c | 1,907$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed No | 2c | 1,420$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…599ebacked No | 1c | 1,386$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed No | 7c | 1,300$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.3 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1091…a259backed Yes | 11c | 1,297$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.69 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +157.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 1,050$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed No | 24c | 889.93$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.14 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked No | 2c | 657.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 39c | 544.52$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.97 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked No | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 34c | 495.44$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.84 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 62c | 457.92$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…a4ffbacked No | 15c | 413.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe671…a682backed No | 20c | 399.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…34b1backed Yes | 15c | 324.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +224.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 29c | 306.51$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.38 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 44c | 301.75$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.74 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 285.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.06 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 15c | 284.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…2773backed Yes | 73c | 247.11$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 44c | 242.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.62 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c0…f0d2backed Yes | 8c | 230$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +350.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb73e…c66fbacked No | 17c | 227.12$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…53b4backed Yes | 11c | 218.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +208.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf5…95adbacked Yes | 6c | 206$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.13 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +9.9wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.6 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +80%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x660f…ec30backed No | 16c | 188.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x933f…d300backed Yes | 16c | 183.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked No | 14c | 173$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 68c | 165.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.01 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a40…afaabacked No | 9c | 159.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…bd1dbacked Yes | 15c | 150$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc90…00aebacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c2…1398backed Yes | 15c | 99.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c72…1e3abacked No | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c0…a28ebacked Yes | 78c | 79.94$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2d…cbe8backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…c030backed No | 52c | 68.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf31…fd25backed No | 19c | 62.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Yes | 22c | 55.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 54c | 55.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae3c…ee83backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +78.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…0754backed No | 49c | 45.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a6…e0c2backed Yes | 62c | 36.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for less than 2 seconds on November 21 2025?this page
- Will Trump and Mamdani not shake hands on November 21 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for 15 seconds or more on November 21 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 10 and 15 seconds on November 21 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 21 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on November 21 2025?No won
- Will a handshake between Trump and Mamdani only be photographed on November 21 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.