Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on November 21 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x059f802c068d23153127cd98ccfd1523e0c6d8b0739b0c7163eb2f5827e96ce3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fd2…3efbbacked Yes | 14c | 2,019$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.32 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaef…a883backed Yes | 2c | 1,255$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,094$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.14 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes | 11c | 899.98$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944abacked Yes | 2c | 859.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes | 26c | 776.14$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.79 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…34b1backed Yes | 7c | 687.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +224.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 15c | 609.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.57 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes | 18c | 526.11$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.88 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1071…42cebacked Yes | 15c | 399.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422d…5cedbacked Yes | 28c | 358.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0787…d81fbacked Yes | 11c | 277.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes | 19c | 265$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed Yes | 17c | 234.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde03…e629backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 15c | 194$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 14c | 161.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 15c | 160$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…8d36backed Yes | 16c | 123.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 13c | 120$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe3…bd1dbacked Yes | 17c | 112.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc7…a013backed Yes | 17c | 87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe04f…891cbacked Yes | 15c | 73.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…c7f9backed No | 74c | 49.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc78f…07eebacked Yes | 27c | 47.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…2670backed Yes | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30c3…5d8ebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5f4fbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 6 and 10 seconds on November 21 2025?this page
- Will Trump and Mamdani not shake hands on November 21 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for 15 seconds or more on November 21 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 10 and 15 seconds on November 21 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 21 2025?No won
- Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for less than 2 seconds on November 21 2025?Yes won
- Will a handshake between Trump and Mamdani only be photographed on November 21 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.