TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 21 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,858
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,479

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,858 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes2c10,148$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.631225%3 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc85…3532backed Yes4c4,996$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.5640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71e5…13febacked Yes4c4,420$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.67911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-77.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes9c1,801$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.718419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3694…950fbacked Yes3c1,538$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-65.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes5c1,457$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.451435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes7c1,179$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-42.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80a0…5677backed Yes30c850.08$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fd2…3efbbacked Yes24c647.11$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1541020%2 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+29.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb3c0…a28ebacked Yes23c611$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes9c573.75$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.413435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2460…e144backed Yes5c523.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes18c458.03$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.63205%1 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7020…fd20backed Yes45c446.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.37per pick46cpaid+264.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b46…944abacked Yes7c428.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8b…529cbacked Yes3c408.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fe…2956backed Yes11c390.91$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes11c390.91$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-23%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc82…6d16backed Yes44c380.05$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes10c368.75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.623423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb8…6898backed Yes6c344.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes12c324.57$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.68728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-37.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e8…22aebacked Yes6c318.07$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde03…e629backed Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x422d…5cedbacked Yes32c295.35$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.82128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-76.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc36d…99ebbacked Yes7c281.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-81.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d03…32cabacked Yes23c265.27$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes25c264.06$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.128817%15 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf6a4…f692backed Yes24c263.34$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.781428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3d8…3c9cbacked Yes6c247.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No76c235.2$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.421,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf42a…0e66backed Yes7c220$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-49.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe3…bd1dbacked Yes20c212.09$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.57425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes25c202.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-67.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41838.9%7 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+68.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes6c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.742910.3%3 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No74c193.78$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.6241238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ce…d57bbacked Yes7c172.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a9c…45e0backed Yes7c171.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-33.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec73…6af3backed Yes54c166.15$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Yes27c153$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.112552%13 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+62.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d8a…acdcbacked Yes41c146.59$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes14c144.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0787…d81fbacked Yes21c130$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.91323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d6…d10abacked Yes25c121.49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.372450%12 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+36.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc90…00aebacked Yes28c120$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.61154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb65…3f3fbacked Yes25c119.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301070%7 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.27per pick43cpaid+100.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xe340…39f9backed Yes17c116.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202429.2%7 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-28.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8063…b886backed Yes32c113.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.03837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+80%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6079…81c6backed Yes11c112.31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.051050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes17c110$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.961723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-54.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1824…571abacked Yes48c103.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.97633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c2…1398backed Yes25c102$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0aa6…b38fbacked Yes17c100$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777e…d384backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ff…fa1bbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+25.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x025a…b035backed Yes36c97.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes25c91.04$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.761315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick31cpaid+16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f59…c79bbacked Yes27c88.89$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7469…d562backed Yes21c86.76$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.92520%1 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick46cpaid-74%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf04e…2773backed No71c83.14$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.11666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick77cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b07…ce47backed Yes26c76.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47f…d792backed Yes26c74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.24742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…fb9dbacked Yes23c70$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e0f…9556backed Yes30c66.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-46.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe68e…8a7dbacked Yes31c64.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+136.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x933f…d300backed Yes30c64.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.27933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9be9…c030backed No67c64.28$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.28540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-44.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40f5…55b9backed Yes28c61.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7a7…a4ffbacked Yes49c61.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed No77c58.25$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.579546.3%44 W · 51 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e22…88a5backed Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121931.6%6 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick47cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x0242…3aedbacked Yes36c47.22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1750%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed Yes30c45.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f5…6532backed Yes27c45.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes34c44.71$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7999…1d86backed Yes26c41.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.062326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-52.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6190…903abacked Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cf9…3cb1backed Yes26c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c8…cf43backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+16.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e5…2670backed Yes29c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.461811.1%2 W · 16 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-52.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9592…a8fdbacked No75c36.71$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.18988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick61cpaid+72.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf353…7aecbacked Yes47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb731…4cb2backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae50…0119backed No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe016…dcc3backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb6…32b9backed No71c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd541…e652backed No74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.84772.3%34 W · 13 L+9.0wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+37.4%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.