TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump and Mamdani not shake hands on November 21 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,911
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,911 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5188…c804backed Yes23c6,837$1,554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,554.046230.6%19 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+29.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked No79c5,160$4,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.81353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick45cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes22c3,019$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$660.713831.6%12 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick22cpaid+157.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes21c3,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6301225%3 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid-28.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc90…00aebacked Yes28c2,267$641 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.231154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No76c2,047$1,557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.217834.6%27 W · 51 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed No75c1,400$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick48cpaid+96.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes19c1,300$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.988419%16 W · 68 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-35.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b26…b3f6backed No78c1,117$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.151435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes20c1,003$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7741238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes20c965.29$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.213423.5%8 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes18c753.32$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.6115032.7%49 W · 101 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd68c…fcb2backed Yes12c750.42$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9570%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2034…8daebacked Yes18c699.99$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1282119%4 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-59.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa2…36f6backed Yes16c642.9$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No76c559.35$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.325339.6%21 W · 32 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No78c521.94$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.531840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c9…8beabacked No80c500$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-40.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2853…3482backed Yes18c469.98$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.163663.9%23 W · 13 L+7.0wins+0.20per pick44cpaid+75.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xacb5…8330backed No80c465.5$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.31714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-82.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf88f…7e8ebacked No80c420.49$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.1250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed No76c400$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes21c379.69$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.178817%15 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-40.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbe2b…d127backed Yes21c324.36$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No76c319.15$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.073568.6%24 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes24c281.22$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.357739%30 W · 47 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c44…a1aabacked No76c243.21$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd923…f400backed No77c240.9$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes22c236.56$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.083225%8 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb73e…c66fbacked Yes27c219.85$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.74425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa05…fed7backed No76c203.95$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.95560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444557.8%26 W · 19 L+3.7wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked No78c200$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447343.8%32 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No80c190.76$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7617452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c328backed Yes21c178.81$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.332055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes23c166.82$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.72205%1 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0787…d81fbacked Yes9c160$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc534…b734backed No76c158.32$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.672365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick64cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes26c140$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-79.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes25c139.24$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.612951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid-13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed Yes29c137.93$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+31.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes25c136.05$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5796319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked Yes24c135.27$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.958739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6752…fafbbacked Yes27c127.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.555653.6%30 W · 26 L+6.0wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+5.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9d0f…c695backed No80c125.07$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1b3…1426backed Yes21c120$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.28253.7%44 W · 38 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c94…056ebacked No80c118.75$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No78c116.67$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick65cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfd14…5ab9backed Yes21c115$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x490e…73adbacked Yes23c109.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.340%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d31…75d9backed Yes19c105.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8efc…8a6cbacked Yes21c101.92$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c2…1398backed Yes23c100.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.91118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f44…179cbacked Yes22c100.36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fb7…61e9backed Yes18c100.03$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.232910.3%3 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca66…ded7backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe3…bd1dbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x933f…d300backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes17c95.83$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.592240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+37.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6f5…f23abacked Yes21c95.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No78c91.3$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.8910127.7%28 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e82…ca87backed Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a99…2cfabacked No78c82$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.041233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e0…14e9backed Yes25c80.85$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27b8…b68cbacked Yes26c80$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.61729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882e…e757backed Yes13c80$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-43.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc48b…cfbbbacked Yes20c72.49$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes18c70$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.623543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Yes23c65.22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe016…dcc3backed Yes21c63.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.65757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2826…f448backed No79c63.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.29742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35cc…88c1backed No75c60$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.2366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c44…9b54backed Yes20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-60.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb6…32b9backed Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa258…2c7cbacked Yes28c53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes23c52.47$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0715124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa31a…96e3backed No80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No72c43$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9122347.5%106 W · 117 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa2b…c35dbacked No79c40.08$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.423435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9be9…c030backed No79c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6540%2 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick64cpaid-44.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x53fd…7823backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb5e…af8dbacked No80c35.25$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.05862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b61…4e49backed No79c27.85$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.85633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-58.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa48…9062backed No79c27$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9430…97cebacked No79c26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73c5…4997backed No79c26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c05…457bbacked No74c25.68$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.68683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick55cpaid+60.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbfa8…96d3backed No79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df8…4961backed No71c25$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c4d…0cadbacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea92…6f4dbacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e3…9efebacked No80c22$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bdb…1598backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4875%6 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+16.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x473a…c40ebacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick44cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.83959%23 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe106…92c6backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick54cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x92bf…0297backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed No73c19.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.418425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked No73c18.52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+147.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf26c…3443backed No79c16$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.