TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf6a4…f692

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
74
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 52 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT2334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$1,077Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,077.5
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$22.63
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$250Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$250
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$319.7
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$187Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+349.1%+$651.74
Will Fuerza Popular (FP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Senate election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+37%+$18.49
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections by less than 5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Keiko Fujimori finish in first place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$47.06
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.2
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+76.9%+$153.76
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+45.3%+$47.13
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$114Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$114.03
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$147.6
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+55.1%+$55.08
Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$41
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$42.6
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$72.23
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$54.04
Will José Antonio Kast win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$65.22
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+43.8%+$36.7
Will an election be called instead of appointing a Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.3
All 23 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+51.3%+$138.26
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$17.3
US forces in Venezuela by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$38.4
Will Trump and Mamdani shake hands for between 2 and 6 seconds on November 21 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$62.78
Will the government shutdown end November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+257.1%+$92.57
Will the Government shutdown end by November 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$116Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+84.8%+$97.97
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will House and Senate pass funding bill by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26.3
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+60.3%+$12.06
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.49
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+59.4%+$89.1
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$227Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$226.51
Israel strikes Iran before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$36.33
Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+61.6%+$18.47
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+26.6%+$26.58
Will Hamas release any more hostages by October 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 13, 2025, EDT+270.4%+$83.81
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$40
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.68
All 10 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-60.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+108.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-55.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Oct 5, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Sevilla win on 2025-10-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 5, 2025, EDT+38.9%+$13.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 12, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $96,000 January 5-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$40
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovicbacked Novak Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.