Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4bdb50db073da1c1ea7bbebe1a1fda29ada113f9e863dc2cd3f37b2295ce4b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $518,977
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $505,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $518,977 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 5c | 58,933$3,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,101.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…eefabacked Yes | 1c | 10,240$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…a610backed Yes | 1c | 10,236$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf920…344fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,429$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked Yes | 7c | 8,330$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 56c | 8,210$4,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,611.62 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 7c | 7,520$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.43 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…a3b2backed Yes | 1c | 7,369$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…fb48backed Yes | 1c | 7,123$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe435…a325backed Yes | 1c | 7,120$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3391…f667backed Yes | 1c | 7,100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb493…e208backed Yes | 1c | 7,080$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd163…d869backed Yes | 1c | 7,060$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1f…2c04backed Yes | 1c | 7,037$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80e…0e9cbacked Yes | 1c | 7,030$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,553$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.38 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 3c | 4,709$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.06 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 4,226$2,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,493.79 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 64c | 4,209$2,680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,680.15 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd4…4095backed Yes | 7c | 4,160$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked No | 29c | 3,500$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,475 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +241.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…9a71backed Yes | 2c | 3,337$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 16c | 3,108$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.91 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 5c | 3,071$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.52 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 2c | 3,033$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.66 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x34e3…29d5backed Yes | 65c | 2,932$1,909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,908.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e06…5a9bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,488$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…b07ebacked Yes | 8c | 2,174$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 66c | 2,042$1,353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.78 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 41c | 2,000$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed Yes | 62c | 1,970$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.04 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,870$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 35c | 1,600$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked Yes | 46c | 1,554$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.46 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 2c | 1,537$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…5aaabacked Yes | 1c | 1,526$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 4c | 1,400$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,391$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.89 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes | 7c | 1,345$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,218$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb7…44f2backed No | 61c | 1,200$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4217…8bf7backed Yes | 1c | 1,129$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,086$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.17 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 44c | 1,063$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.72 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95a…aee7backed Yes | 62c | 1,048$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdec…cf08backed No | 40c | 1,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe35e…7754backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…cd94backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 72c | 840.89$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2f…21babacked Yes | 6c | 825$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 37c | 785.12$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.63 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 62c | 771.99$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.6 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 52c | 756.59$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.41 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e53…ba80backed Yes | 46c | 752.77$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.63 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd180…4276backed No | 29c | 744.69$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed Yes | 65c | 742.26$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd2…0bd8backed Yes | 48c | 724.62$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce3…5e45backed Yes | 6c | 699.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 57c | 670$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.1 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…a5acbacked Yes | 11c | 658.22$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x850a…a73ebacked Yes | 2c | 645$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 639.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked Yes | 56c | 610.39$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 69c | 602.54$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.75 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5f…47e6backed No | 47c | 583.33$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 3c | 571.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b94…7937backed Yes | 10c | 537.12$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 326 | 26.4%86 W · 240 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401c…6737backed No | 40c | 500$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb24a…9ffdbacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…d452backed Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd16…0be8backed Yes | 70c | 451.04$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 68cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b55…01c6backed Yes | 7c | 403.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +88%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 400.92$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.6 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…a6f0backed Yes | 31c | 400$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e0…7934backed Yes | 64c | 386.14$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11e8…5b74backed Yes | 72c | 379$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.3 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…4d48backed Yes | 76c | 373.51$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 55c | 369.82$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.09 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…5604backed No | 25c | 353.9$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +103.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…a7a2backed Yes | 4c | 349.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed No | 33c | 341.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.6 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked Yes | 67c | 335.14$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.54 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 29c | 333.3$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 133 | 41.4%55 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Yes | 46c | 326.75$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1622…212fbacked Yes | 6c | 325.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…c86ebacked No | 33c | 305.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed No | 31c | 305$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.5 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…5790backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…25b0backed Yes | 50c | 297.82$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 24c | 293.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.07 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…ea43backed Yes | 7c | 281.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…06d5backed Yes | 52c | 264.97$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 29c | 257.28$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.61 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed No | 37c | 250$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b71…f840backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c7…43eabacked Yes | 20c | 245.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.