Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on November 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cfc17a6d372438a3f94bfd384d09d0d25dc25f5bba54dbe0e13a68096d591ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 4c | 10,727$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.23 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d1…d5c1backed Yes | 0c | 9,209$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 7,680$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…0f53backed Yes | 4c | 5,952$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.28 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 4,832$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.66 | 80 | 15%12 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,710$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.43 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd4…4095backed Yes | 2c | 3,676$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 4c | 3,563$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.01 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 4c | 2,219$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.35 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x334e…93c3backed Yes | 7c | 1,906$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 3c | 1,904$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 283 | 20.5%58 W · 225 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,744$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.67 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d54…2386backed Yes | 7c | 1,533$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed Yes | 7c | 1,356$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7a…d7ccbacked Yes | 7c | 1,201$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,001$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 962$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.36 | 146 | 24.7%36 W · 110 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed4…a52abacked Yes | 8c | 937.73$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 13cpaid | +468.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 2c | 648.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Yes | 6c | 623.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 14c | 527.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 3c | 483.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c8…34e0backed Yes | 6c | 475.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 6c | 338.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 9c | 296.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…19d8backed Yes | 5c | 283.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf454…7eccbacked Yes | 4c | 281.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e89…9af0backed Yes | 7c | 276.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…7f32backed Yes | 8c | 256.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb41…1fffbacked Yes | 7c | 228$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on November 12?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.