Us Politics · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8b914c55a23b2d69270208a6ec43d3f02dd4e31b3ff462079b09dc120819dc5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $511,217
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $520,543
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $511,217 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes | 18c | 36,042$6,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,640.38 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked No | 2c | 24,918$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.21 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -85.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b3…6486backed No | 9c | 12,780$1,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,136.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 34c | 9,546$3,239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,306.93 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed Yes | 59c | 8,240$4,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,353.84 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 6,469$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 61 | 0%0 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…07e8backed No | 4c | 5,751$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 5,470$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.06 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…a3b2backed No | 1c | 4,476$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…6896backed No | 25c | 4,306$1,077 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc3…5d07backed No | 2c | 4,168$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…5aaabacked No | 1c | 4,111$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59c7…536cbacked No | 0c | 4,025$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked No | 12c | 3,503$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.86 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 20cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…60adbacked No | 21c | 3,288$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 14c | 3,200$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,749.3 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +12.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +218.5%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 15c | 3,110$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,640.95 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 66c | 2,734$1,818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.23 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe07a…a610backed No | 2c | 2,693$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f33…a8f6backed Yes | 62c | 2,090$1,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3327…11debacked No | 16c | 2,055$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff05…fad7backed No | 1c | 1,954$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -86.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 20c | 1,800$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 10c | 1,687$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,523.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 10cpaid | +242.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 11c | 1,639$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.83 | 210 | 22.4%47 W · 163 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 33c | 1,634$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.56 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 26c | 1,616$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.57 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 13c | 1,538$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.06 | 111 | 20.7%23 W · 88 L | +10.9wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +212.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 4c | 1,534$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…0615backed No | 2c | 1,450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…add6backed Yes | 7c | 1,396$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.93per pick | 7cpaid | +1,297.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 42c | 1,391$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.24 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Yes | 52c | 1,337$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$646.94 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed No | 12c | 1,274$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf06b…ac7abacked No | 10c | 1,238$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,222$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.86 | 146 | 6.2%9 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60dc…7b1ebacked No | 2c | 1,215$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bae…5d34backed Yes | 51c | 1,209$616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.52 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…723abacked Yes | 28c | 1,193$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +78.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3392…1cacbacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.91per pick | 9cpaid | +1,011.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed No | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 10c | 1,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed No | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef5…5ee2backed No | 8c | 1,000$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…df3bbacked No | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd813…7b0dbacked Yes | 41c | 940$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 67c | 913.95$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.48 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 60c | 912.71$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.84 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…5a94backed Yes | 12c | 840$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883b…e160backed No | 62c | 811.15$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 45c | 758.47$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.27 | 193 | 28.5%55 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 42c | 737.76$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 45c | 725.31$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.18 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf940…0231backed No | 14c | 712.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6d…e408backed Yes | 42c | 700$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 10c | 691.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.62 | 142 | 8.5%12 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…68cfbacked Yes | 9c | 666.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…a7a2backed No | 11c | 639.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed4…a52abacked Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 13cpaid | +468.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0788…adc1backed Yes | 8c | 600$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 42cpaid | +591.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe9…8308backed Yes | 22c | 600$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +7.7wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 59c | 516.84$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.91 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked No | 14c | 500.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37c…a5acbacked No | 6c | 473.34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5a…9f6bbacked Yes | 22c | 451.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +126%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 7c | 449.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 14c | 426.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.07 | 80 | 30%24 W · 56 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29e9…c49cbacked No | 5c | 403.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0677…2a28backed No | 5c | 402.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…83c5backed No | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked No | 55c | 394.58$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.38 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 72c | 382.46$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 79c | 350.78$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.12 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d24…c632backed Yes | 9c | 321$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 7cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…25b0backed Yes | 8c | 298.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.61 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9099…8491backed No | 14c | 290.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd14a…c7babacked No | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf83…4047backed No | 78c | 284.34$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…8fa2backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Yes | 8c | 277.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 79c | 269.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.29 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked Yes | 70c | 250.06$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…8979backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0595…49d4backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,150%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…cf43backed Yes | 41c | 243.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…fb6ebacked No | 13c | 241.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…48c4backed Yes | 22c | 228$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +207.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da8…a514backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 6cpaid | +455.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…c86ebacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +102.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…3426backed No | 59c | 210$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed No | 18c | 210$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -89%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…ce33backed No | 59c | 201$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d5…9925backed Yes | 79c | 200$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4217…8bf7backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x338e…646ebacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…da5dbacked No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x369c…73a1backed No | 59c | 180$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on November 12?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on November 12?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on November 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.