TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9642…d2ab

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
135
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT5623.2%13 W · 43 L+3.6wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+57.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 56 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+359.5%+$826.91
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will the US accuse Iran of Oslo Embassy attack?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Canada strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Germany strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$169
Netanyahu arrested by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
US forces enter Iran by March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$983Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$983
Will the position of Supreme Leader of Iran be abolished?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$126
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+4,737.4%+$6,632.43
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$274Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+78.6%+$215.29
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+397.9%+$99.48
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$15
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+58.5%+$46.49
Houthi strike on Israel by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$15
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$502Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+250.4%+$1,257.1
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$281Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+182.8%+$513.67
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+342.5%+$1,106.23
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+525%+$677.25
Showing 25 of 56 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT250%0 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Solana reach $160 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$500
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$400Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$400
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,960Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$1,959.85
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$500
Will Solana reach $190 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$600
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$1,105Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,105
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$800Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$800
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,000
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Bitcoin reach $120K in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$4,131Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$4,130.68
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$300
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$215Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$215.5
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Bitcoin dip to $100K in September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
All 25 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT180%0 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$186.03
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.1
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$184.59
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$73
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.21
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,600 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$77.47
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$41
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$178.7
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,168Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,168.18
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$520Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$520
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
All 18 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$187Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$187
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$1,828Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,828
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$1,925Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,925
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Will Trump nominate Arthur Laffer as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$300
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
Will Powell say "Good afternoon" during September press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$220
All 11 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

F1 Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
F1 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick10cpaid+242.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Earnings — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kinder Morgan (KMI) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$480Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT+115.3%+$553.36
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+174.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Next French Prime Minister appointed by October 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT+174.9%+$174.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$150
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the S&P 500 Index lose at least 5% on any day in Q1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.