Middle East · resolved market
Netanyahu arrested by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ad9f9a39b89c9432f5b8a32d63920f135dee6abb449753e196374a100ff8f57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $137,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $137,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ba3…feffbacked Yes | 3c | 4,133$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa863…0236backed Yes | 1c | 2,883$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 2,122$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1e…21a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,083$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae0f…bbd3backed Yes | 2c | 1,933$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef67…2a33backed Yes | 5c | 1,779$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.61 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 3c | 1,534$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,457$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…debabacked Yes | 2c | 1,431$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,311$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 1,271$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 228 | 2.6%6 W · 222 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d0…ce91backed Yes | 4c | 1,206$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +4.7wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x89ba…c250backed Yes | 3c | 1,197$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,170$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.09 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,147$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85c…ed6bbacked Yes | 1c | 801.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcec5…bbd0backed Yes | 4c | 684.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08d1…a713backed Yes | 2c | 636.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…cc55backed Yes | 2c | 625.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 579$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +132.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…8622backed Yes | 6c | 567.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 2c | 552.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a6…02cfbacked Yes | 3c | 540.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc94…9a27backed Yes | 4c | 338.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.