TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,804,124
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,590,535

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,804,124 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 955 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb2ee…9c7fbacked Yes2c412,234$8,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,049.7570%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaef9…11bebacked Yes0c254,500$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a7d…1f87backed No53c174,453$91,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,560.16580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes4c144,027$5,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,933.268010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca33…918cbacked No70c110,436$76,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,487.27966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c99,998$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2961…bac2backed Yes3c95,428$2,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,521.8480%0 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes3c86,369$2,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,597.4418315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes34c84,415$28,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,844.464934.7%17 W · 32 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf702…b6a5backed Yes0c76,923$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.970%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5a0…60c3backed Yes1c71,605$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$728.39430%0 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x624b…8d17backed Yes0c68,000$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a16…33dbbacked Yes29c60,183$17,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,729.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes2c53,432$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.42643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes40c44,029$17,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,410.93825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0663…0c31backed Yes38c43,970$16,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,700.1580%0 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes3c41,513$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.571015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c5d…0b1abacked Yes7c40,353$2,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,729.4100%0 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes5c40,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200323.1%1 W · 31 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick14cpaid-95%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9fc9…fbf6backed Yes3c40,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00070%0 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes46c39,737$18,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,459.495034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e07…efe0backed Yes2c39,365$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.81320%0 W · 32 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f1…6712backed No79c37,362$29,479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,883.931080%8 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe38b…86f3backed Yes27c34,081$9,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,041.07333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed No78c33,438$26,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,413.4335123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb80…a905backed Yes29c31,448$9,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,044.14728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes1c31,389$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.951488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe784…e664backed Yes27c30,848$8,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,379.752626.9%7 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-39.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03d8…cdf0backed No66c30,282$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,2822100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf66f…8e0cbacked No63c29,249$18,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,793.53683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+35.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…ef38backed Yes20c28,738$5,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,747.66812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-77.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcfc…3d2ebacked No77c25,643$19,809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,834.012100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+47.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes8c25,083$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936230%0 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1be6…336bbacked Yes0c25,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf03…5083backed Yes13c24,230$3,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,053.8650%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No66c23,888$15,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,147.5358126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff88…4735backed Yes28c23,413$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,500333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ee…894bbacked Yes24c23,000$5,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,539.9990%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes30c22,500$6,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,789.85432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c22,152$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.13140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb20b…8da0backed Yes6c21,786$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.2590%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f0…d29dbacked Yes15c20,544$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00080%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa974…ef79backed Yes52c20,385$10,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,584.871631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-51.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc665…8c1ebacked Yes1c20,256$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24f0…7ad4backed No75c20,105$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,105.26683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.31per pick53cpaid+57.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a18…43b3backed Yes50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00050%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa40a…fa62backed Yes39c20,000$7,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8502445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…4804backed Yes1c19,776$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf212…28c7backed Yes2c19,590$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5bb…bcd6backed No80c19,509$15,532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,977.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a70…8b38backed Yes20c19,450$3,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,89060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes33c18,931$6,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,277.212012.5%15 W · 105 L-8.9wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-55.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5e52…9434backed Yes27c18,415$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004920.4%10 W · 39 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x715d…b09bbacked No58c17,745$10,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,375.23862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5755…473cbacked Yes22c15,732$3,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,424.971915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbaa4…cf10backed Yes5c15,728$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.3940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe445…e8dfbacked Yes28c14,598$4,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,159.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x930a…f1aebacked Yes21c14,257$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40e2…565bbacked Yes3c14,065$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.2350%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2383…3f78backed Yes16c13,974$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd820…5644backed Yes20c13,920$2,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,81410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5637…1a14backed No61c13,696$8,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,384.53966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes32c13,327$4,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,222.81333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x226a…3e38backed Yes19c12,500$2,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,395.5370%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ec…a6d9backed Yes30c12,199$3,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,701.8990%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc08…6be7backed Yes1c11,925$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3280%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes3c11,200$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9642…d2abbacked Yes4c11,194$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%0 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d9b…765ebacked Yes4c11,170$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.4560%0 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x797e…5136backed Yes27c11,090$2,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,994.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0171…7f5ebacked Yes1c11,039$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10080%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed No72c10,517$7,536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,980.2925824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed No61c10,495$6,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,040.9922216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3283…1da9backed Yes37c10,300$3,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,819.991526.7%4 W · 11 L-4.2wins-0.28per pick55cpaid-57.4%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x68d9…8287backed Yes0c10,250$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes2c10,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10792.5%2 W · 77 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-96%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbef…7de2backed Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b91…e572backed Yes11c10,000$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.113716.2%6 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed Yes33c10,000$3,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,297.261833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6449…c0aebacked Yes1c9,845$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd709…5f46backed Yes22c9,800$2,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked No63c9,456$6,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,455.451741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+177.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d5c…7d29backed Yes30c9,267$2,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.947328.8%21 W · 52 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+11.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbef5…1c5abacked No56c9,200$5,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,053.99475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+18%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe52…32c5backed Yes4c8,761$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.831711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-77.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e8c…9554backed Yes1c8,757$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Yes1c8,654$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.421431.4%2 W · 141 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x05e5…4e19backed No59c8,536$5,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,464.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00a3…e203backed Yes37c8,501$3,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,128.851315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-64%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No76c8,480$6,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,99813863%87 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb381…d0fbbacked No71c8,468$6,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,423.744100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+56.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6796…3e7cbacked Yes12c8,333$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x553b…8735backed Yes7c7,950$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.6110%0 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Yes31c7,919$2,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,451.25478.5%4 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-85.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x369a…d465backed Yes1c7,800$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes46c7,800$3,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,552.627231.9%23 W · 49 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes29c7,773$2,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,262.125240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafd7…f634backed No71c7,650$5,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,202.71785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.32per pick54cpaid+54%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.