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Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$171,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$122,788

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,499 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca3e…f2fabacked No8c59,428$4,662 inLost-$4,661.575240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdae…b808backed No16c54,707$8,929 inLost-$8,928.621020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid+23.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No1c18,182$182 inLost-$181.823423.5%8 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfbe…ccb0backed No6c3,500$210 inLost-$21010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5961…5788backed No11c2,540$274 inLost-$274.39850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd295…a832backed No6c2,151$120 inLost-$120.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x500b…1b55backed No10c1,650$165 inLost-$165425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-63.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd188…f605backed No14c1,416$200 inLost-$20040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No10c1,392$134 inLost-$133.8311619%22 W · 94 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-62%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf365…64ecbacked No7c1,100$79 inLost-$78.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9a5…8ce6backed No1c1,000$10 inLost-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-76%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd3…3afebacked No10c811.03$80 inLost-$80.08248.3%2 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2333…91a3backed No13c794.96$102 inLost-$102520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-48.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4329…b63bbacked No12c550$64 inLost-$64.432213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-58.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cce…18f5backed No5c474.92$22 inLost-$21.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x448e…f694backed No12c320$38 inLost-$37.620%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No9c311.05$27 inLost-$26.972425%6 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa046…00c7backed No11c282.61$31 inLost-$31.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed No11c228$24 inLost-$23.941030%3 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7ed…5707backed No7c200$14 inLost-$14540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-33.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66a5…56cbbacked No9c200$18 inLost-$183613.9%5 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No12c166$20 inLost-$19.92110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb785…49e6backed No16c125$20 inLost-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1d0…438dbacked No10c102.25$11 inLost-$10.6130531.1%95 W · 210 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No11c100$11 inLost-$10.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+63.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe900…6cdcbacked No10c100$10 inLost-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa7f…7ab2backed No15c100$15 inLost-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No16c94$15 inLost-$15.223414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-61.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.