TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$236,628
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$283,025

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,628 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 321 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes69c28,219$19,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,800.3737745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x472b…c594backed Yes73c22,092$16,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,067.212653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a90…93bfbacked No36c21,000$7,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,652.211442.9%6 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed Yes70c18,920$13,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,640.2258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes72c13,645$9,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,801.011662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes65c12,181$7,926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,255.141650%8 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked No30c10,716$3,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,239.455240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No33c10,000$3,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,267.462222.7%5 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc30a…353bbacked No26c8,286$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,19510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x532b…dd2dbacked No34c7,259$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,497.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes69c3,694$2,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.154136.6%15 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd49c…8150backed Yes67c3,320$2,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.131546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick34cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No34c3,290$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.931833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13cb…a48abacked No32c3,085$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.629913.1%13 W · 86 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-54.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dd0…bc3dbacked No31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6201752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef9…afacbacked Yes76c1,917$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.298619.8%17 W · 69 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-25.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x658d…b95dbacked Yes72c1,844$1,328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.321656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x249c…2783backed No28c1,786$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-37.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a7b…688bbacked Yes79c1,600$1,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3361643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x460f…e20bbacked No3c1,515$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5961…5788backed No35c1,472$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.87850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13d7…58b3backed No32c1,460$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed No28c1,131$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.6525824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd188…f605backed No29c1,036$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No27c1,001$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.8511619%22 W · 94 L-7.9wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-62%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes66c1,000$655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3451060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-63.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b11…8625backed No10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf478…aaa2backed No33c1,000$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb1c…963ebacked No26c884.77$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.5955032.5%179 W · 371 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45ef…d3f6backed No23c750$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.233020%6 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-71.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70a9…6a74backed Yes69c663.18$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.22450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…51b7backed No29c637.21$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x65e4…be3abacked Yes65c600$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid+9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No33c600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1986810.3%7 W · 61 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1c3…4996backed Yes71c582.66$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71a7…11cdbacked Yes68c580.15$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+48.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a50…834fbacked Yes76c555.79$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.39757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick71cpaid-20.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1602…cbf7backed Yes63c500$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa51b…26b1backed No24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick43cpaid+26.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd07b…1898backed Yes67c500$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba61…5b0abacked Yes69c487.96$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9abb…1494backed Yes71c477.77$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No18c454.99$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.93423.5%8 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes72c444$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29f9…65bbbacked Yes71c434.37$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94df…5797backed No35c418$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9710…230dbacked Yes68c406.48$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8404…831fbacked Yes69c392.69$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x259a…991dbacked Yes68c390.22$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.223138.7%12 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8463…fccdbacked Yes70c380.01$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No26c370.97$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.833414.7%5 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-61.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x481d…48cfbacked Yes63c370$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.8757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No7c355.55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.633212.5%4 W · 28 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-57.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa94f…0045backed No29c343.91$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd67c…84d0backed Yes71c332.42$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d8d…ef26backed No35c332$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecbd…21d7backed Yes69c331.84$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e8a…e09abacked No35c329$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a62…ae3abacked Yes67c323.11$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x293e…9b12backed Yes67c310.12$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca9…b942backed Yes65c305.34$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd958…6745backed No33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4296…338ebacked Yes75c303$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.75425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed No35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10511658.6%68 W · 48 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x068f…0084backed Yes69c293.89$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4329…b63bbacked No31c284.71$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.492213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick25cpaid-58.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e2e…6856backed No36c270$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.180%0 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0e38…2b9abacked No35c270$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No30c267.12$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.141827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed No21c253.45$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.35850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x930c…71dabacked Yes68c250.97$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3d7…096cbacked Yes67c243.22$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.742100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c26…4f84backed Yes67c238.35$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb72…e9b5backed Yes65c229$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd535…fa67backed No36c225$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c7…8f62backed Yes65c225$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe1…b9b5backed Yes67c224.97$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb8…3da7backed No25c212.76$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.73714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-58%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea3a…f78ebacked No46c200$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb36…f0afbacked No31c200$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.67862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+15.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24d2…92c5backed No33c200$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+43.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b20…6e56backed Yes68c199.98$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…3b7cbacked Yes65c196$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18d7…f54bbacked No33c188$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ea0…35eabacked Yes70c186.33$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a01…7a30backed No33c184$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98c8…221ebacked Yes65c182$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b93…ecf5backed Yes65c178$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…fa90backed Yes65c177$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c2f…3c79backed Yes65c176$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7128…24c2backed Yes65c176$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30f2…73b9backed Yes67c172.72$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36cf…d8febacked No33c169$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab0d…9572backed Yes67c164$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf16…7b41backed No35c154$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac14…9c8fbacked No33c153$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ce3…8438backed No39c150$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…4608backed No33c146$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb64f…6c58backed No28c141.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403915.4%6 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-53.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.