TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,250,036
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,865,858

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,250,036 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 496 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f8e…10f2backed Yes0c380,735$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a63…4256backed Yes0c380,605$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9fe…f135backed Yes16c126,065$20,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,767.821338.5%5 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick23cpaid+10.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes2c107,801$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,044.111020%2 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-67.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf57…77c7backed Yes1c107,496$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.12244.2%1 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-78%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56c9…0d9ebacked No75c86,835$64,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,021.988100%8 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0914…9c93backed Yes4c77,236$2,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,867.73100%0 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5755…473cbacked Yes14c56,394$7,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,676.881915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-66.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07ca…a694backed No79c49,632$38,994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,637.581163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick63cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes4c47,514$1,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,809.161015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb267…5f55backed Yes25c45,792$11,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,477.96742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…bb68backed Yes11c40,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,400520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Yes20c40,000$7,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,971.4319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick15cpaid-80.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63a9…9a69backed Yes5c31,803$1,505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,505.2690%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04c…9036backed Yes6c30,606$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.48812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-83%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8179…0a06backed Yes21c30,558$6,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,506.6730%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xefc1…dfcdbacked Yes2c30,136$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.9860%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes27c30,027$8,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,113.217123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes8c25,992$2,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,196.02643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55d4…74babacked Yes17c21,362$3,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,733.4630%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2c5…bbefbacked Yes20c19,546$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11bc…b2a5backed Yes6c17,951$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.99333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61b1…cd59backed Yes0c17,489$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc9d…45debacked Yes6c16,903$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes7c16,880$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,149.71140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf212…28c7backed Yes3c16,870$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.83110%0 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes9c16,818$1,502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes3c16,749$547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$547.27432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c15,076$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.231070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6846…b797backed No65c15,000$9,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,250875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+72.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d90…f272backed Yes4c14,228$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.8260%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c14,067$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351.256785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c12,400$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.721490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes10c12,005$1,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.218315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc08…6be7backed Yes20c10,999$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.8380%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde66…6981backed Yes15c10,648$1,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e7…245dbacked Yes4c10,511$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c98…ef88backed Yes6c10,465$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$647.94494.1%2 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc14e…4585backed Yes1c10,292$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes12c10,117$1,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,234230%0 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80c7…9370backed Yes5c10,106$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e9f…de68backed Yes1c10,003$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-85.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3e…abeabacked Yes2c9,956$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.92224.5%1 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-91.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa740…ee18backed Yes4c9,896$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.03478.5%4 W · 43 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-85.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No80c9,194$7,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,849.2258126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd8f…20abbacked No74c8,841$6,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,298.753100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6294…33f3backed No76c8,644$6,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,037.136657.6%38 W · 28 L+6.9wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes6c8,000$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.37250%0 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf445…1f8abacked Yes4c7,970$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.8110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2609…9179backed Yes6c7,925$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x131f…2fedbacked Yes18c7,456$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,326.052119%4 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick35cpaid-73.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c7,011$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.951463.4%5 W · 141 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-57.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe955…1989backed Yes20c7,000$1,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,40070%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xacca…c8f2backed No80c6,752$5,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.23366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick79cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c6,720$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.72125.7%12 W · 200 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes10c6,688$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.736111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b3a…783ebacked Yes15c6,667$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0005747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes2c6,307$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.871203.3%4 W · 116 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-61.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d41…23d9backed Yes5c5,814$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes14c5,729$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.0318425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e17…0da1backed Yes1c5,687$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb31b…c199backed Yes1c5,653$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab1e…bb2ebacked Yes6c5,221$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d1…e9c1backed Yes6c5,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b91…e572backed Yes4c5,000$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.953716.2%6 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x368c…6bf5backed Yes3c4,920$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb73…e3a4backed Yes1c4,889$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7af4…ddddbacked Yes1c4,874$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.24714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-71.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b4…3b36backed Yes5c4,859$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…e383backed Yes6c4,591$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.88904.4%4 W · 86 L+0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe653…4594backed Yes22c4,490$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.83150%0 W · 15 L-3.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe665…9fd2backed Yes9c4,336$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes3c4,324$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7260%0 W · 26 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52c1…f251backed Yes1c4,287$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e7e…5ba1backed Yes24c4,200$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00850%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8aed…46fabacked Yes16c4,120$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.41200%0 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1262…84b7backed No74c4,100$3,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd9e…eddcbacked Yes18c3,969$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd785…f5b9backed Yes8c3,912$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.6740%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58c1…91d3backed Yes26c3,904$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed45…934cbacked Yes1c3,823$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1aa…40adbacked Yes1c3,815$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes4c3,651$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.29781.3%1 W · 77 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick6cpaid-86.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c3,627$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.412999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8731…1181backed No78c3,606$2,798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.15742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes2c3,600$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636810.3%7 W · 61 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No79c3,549$2,821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.6322550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe904…8070backed No73c3,500$2,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.991172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf902…df82backed Yes16c3,400$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5391643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07bd…d1cdbacked Yes1c3,393$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.11170%0 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf966…86e7backed Yes2c3,333$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-84.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3a4…fcd4backed Yes3c3,221$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes3c3,053$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100190%0 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes2c3,048$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.081073.7%4 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e57…5640backed Yes33c3,012$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe7a…abb7backed Yes4c3,011$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked No73c3,000$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+46.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1307…bd75backed Yes4c2,963$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.551631.3%5 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick16cpaid+80%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.