TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,605,611
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,835,817

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,605,611 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes1c394,035$2,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,657.99362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1275…203cbacked Yes29c290,774$84,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84,933.881040%4 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick66cpaid-41.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf705…3ca7backed Yes15c163,362$24,117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,116.9735123.9%84 W · 267 L+15.9wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-36.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aed…46fabacked Yes12c117,111$13,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,947.78200%0 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4f1…2417backed Yes8c110,353$8,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,997.181513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes7c109,022$7,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,473.83659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ef…039dbacked Yes2c99,635$2,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,232.741910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-86.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x126d…44b8backed Yes15c87,934$13,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,292.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…3291backed No76c73,603$55,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,679.631553.3%8 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.18per pick71cpaid-29.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes11c71,273$8,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,027.3110313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd69b…1ed8backed Yes79c58,991$46,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,403.314240.5%17 W · 25 L+6.4wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+110%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xe700…7005backed Yes17c57,951$9,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,659.981478.6%11 W · 3 L+6.9wins+0.50per pick29cpaid+200.1%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Yes19c55,555$10,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,555.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b16…a4fcbacked No79c55,078$43,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,682.311957.9%11 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick68cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9841…5189backed No55c46,357$25,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,025.51771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c98…ef88backed Yes18c45,693$8,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,096.3494.1%2 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes1c45,444$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.341050%5 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef72…3c45backed Yes8c44,908$3,749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,749.234528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked Yes14c44,056$6,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,284.58633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked Yes5c43,668$2,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,081.063611.1%4 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes7c42,999$2,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,941.6418315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5950…8c48backed Yes15c42,411$6,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,352.91323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick16cpaid-12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd02…aba7backed No64c42,328$26,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,363.136124.6%15 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-56%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe32…106dbacked Yes9c42,103$3,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,592.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ef2…6d23backed Yes68c41,966$28,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,414.31616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick42cpaid-78.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9981…dec4backed No70c38,143$26,727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,416.011573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick72cpaid+0.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x472b…c594backed Yes62c35,782$22,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,012.112653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d92fbacked Yes29c35,237$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,20020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb84f…ff71backed Yes2c35,160$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$633.16714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick3cpaid+273.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked No36c34,444$12,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,174.64955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes6c32,853$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,048.261729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf2…f6ccbacked Yes10c32,016$3,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,049.1350%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed No73c31,404$22,875 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,529.641060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x994e…622dbacked Yes11c29,114$3,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,111.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe955…1989backed Yes8c27,000$2,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,14070%0 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes14c26,834$3,689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,689.387123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc50…4c82backed No76c25,987$19,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,273.7558126.9%156 W · 425 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-39.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8f…64a7backed Yes64c25,216$16,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,108.051250%6 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+242.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf7a1…9dcebacked Yes5c25,000$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2502321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63a9…9a69backed Yes2c24,390$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.1990%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbc3…ec3cbacked Yes10c24,241$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.98728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x295d…accebacked Yes10c23,958$2,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,471.97147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Yes66c23,162$15,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,289.691662.5%10 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick67cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd33…2aadbacked Yes11c22,279$2,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,417.8840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No69c22,246$15,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,852.782528%7 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce82…b52ebacked No29c20,414$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,414.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Yes54c20,000$10,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,8001330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid+8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed No72c20,000$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,600366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8378…8b50backed Yes15c20,000$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,000633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0bd…f6a8backed Yes5c20,000$1,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,004.311020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x784d…d27dbacked Yes14c19,409$2,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,796.022729.6%8 W · 19 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb68a…c568backed Yes13c18,970$2,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,403.722216.2%36 W · 186 L-14.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc893…b7b0backed Yes15c18,822$2,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,871.56812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6402…2fa1backed Yes6c18,581$1,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,074.51643.1%2 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick8cpaid-72.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c18,534$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.52140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Yes62c18,437$11,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,375.9137745.9%173 W · 204 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-0.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda68…7ee2backed No74c18,000$13,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,697.87683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.29per pick54cpaid+45.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x224b…7789backed No64c17,836$11,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,448.06757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a84…4612backed Yes6c17,806$1,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.96922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6304…7ebfbacked Yes31c17,685$5,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,422.0450%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked No49c17,575$8,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,007.65240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd574…425dbacked No77c16,779$12,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,838.772875%21 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.14per pick61cpaid+31.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe53b…9b7abacked Yes2c16,453$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c16,396$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.191070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No56c16,115$9,016 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,098.791833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-46%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Yes34c16,090$5,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,498.291030%3 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a26…8e98backed Yes7c16,015$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes23c15,729$3,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,672.033836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20bd…4845backed No79c15,419$12,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,255.151181.8%9 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick74cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ed2…3cf4backed Yes8c15,275$1,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,166.84742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick20cpaid+62.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c14,330$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.256785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b59…58e6backed Yes6c14,247$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.431001%1 W · 99 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-96.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60f1…cb3ebacked Yes10c13,733$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.9912259.8%73 W · 49 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No72c13,727$9,909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,817.545034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0140…9510backed Yes15c13,713$2,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,052.28850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes8c13,258$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0006723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes48c13,233$6,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,385.931650%8 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd321…a77fbacked No32c12,917$4,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,815.674763.8%30 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick64cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1be…3772backed Yes8c12,794$1,033 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,033.372412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf01…e0a3backed Yes1c12,650$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.0250%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No40c12,500$4,991 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,509.182055%11 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No76c12,000$9,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9303724.3%9 W · 28 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25ab…6321backed No79c12,000$9,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,520540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+173.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x877a…f419backed Yes18c11,741$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,170.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c3…21a0backed Yes12c11,545$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,328.36230%0 W · 23 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes6c11,492$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$681.538010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5d…7be1backed Yes13c11,301$1,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,467.08540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f6f…5a01backed Yes9c11,070$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.3130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes22c11,022$2,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,414.0225824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef19…91e7backed Yes73c11,017$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e22…3993backed No20c10,965$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,791.74757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes13c10,832$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,452.261015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Yes2c10,705$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.981384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.6wins+0.35per pick49cpaid+85.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1fd5…cf04backed Yes24c10,610$2,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,555.391233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7911…0c01backed Yes6c10,247$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfa5…4369backed No79c10,000$7,923 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b29…d732backed No71c9,921$7,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,845.14450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked No75c9,873$7,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,461.69728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dfd…6a46backed Yes27c9,745$2,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,618.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-75.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x41fe…79c1backed Yes6c9,665$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.633923.1%9 W · 30 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.