TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,857,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,255,279

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,857,523 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 434 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c2,411,983$6,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,216.99234.3%1 W · 22 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick2cpaid-87.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33ac…9334backed Yes6c945,000$56,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56,70010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb53…0412backed Yes0c824,032$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,205.6840%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf6a5…98d0backed Yes0c419,999$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440560%3 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick24cpaid+82.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb41a…3a25backed Yes0c387,794$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.3890%0 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x115d…f608backed Yes0c374,106$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.11250%0 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes0c296,498$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.5130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc54…d4dcbacked Yes6c200,000$11,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,999.99147.1%1 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick7cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8298…b978backed Yes1c157,498$1,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,792.9918315.3%28 W · 155 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes1c115,200$1,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,584.57659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34f6…0ba8backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed Yes0c93,682$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.631070%0 W · 107 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf928…2a10backed Yes4c69,994$2,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,713.0920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1f0…d76cbacked Yes9c66,916$6,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,139.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33af…675ebacked Yes4c58,625$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,099.89280%0 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e72…45adbacked Yes16c56,911$9,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,127.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66d5…5e70backed Yes2c51,469$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,199.3950%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3e…f2fabacked Yes5c50,502$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,749.855240.4%21 W · 31 L+0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1be6…336bbacked Yes0c50,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x81c2…9a9cbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33e8…8bf7backed Yes3c43,294$1,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,471.97120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked Yes0c42,002$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.81488.8%13 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick4cpaid-49.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d0…ade5backed Yes6c41,674$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes4c41,649$1,867 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,866.986810.3%7 W · 61 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-77.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2217…3834backed Yes4c36,771$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,500.0440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c9…6122backed Yes4c36,400$1,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333.730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…32d9backed Yes3c34,773$1,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,035.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6396…64d3backed Yes3c32,637$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,11110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c29,970$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.97800%0 W · 80 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca9…ad82backed Yes4c29,513$1,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,076.92130%0 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8be…830cbacked Yes15c26,577$3,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,894.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22bd…ad18backed Yes4c25,519$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed20…84f1backed Yes0c25,168$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.17110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…d918backed Yes13c25,000$3,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,139.28425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes10c25,000$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5001435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes1c24,712$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.838010%8 W · 72 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick6cpaid-52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32fa…076cbacked Yes4c24,536$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d14…a653backed Yes9c24,381$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.53633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-48.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ff…374fbacked Yes0c22,633$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92fc…1d78backed Yes9c22,629$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0107…7ec3backed Yes4c21,970$926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.211513.3%2 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d6d…d787backed Yes2c21,048$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.58128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-79.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bcc…8f80backed Yes3c20,871$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607230%0 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe196…baabbacked Yes0c20,400$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807e…50d6backed Yes0c20,020$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.43180%0 W · 18 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e50…8f81backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40a…fa62backed Yes10c20,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.982445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-27.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7905…3a92backed Yes4c19,584$875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca75…657fbacked Yes9c18,705$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.153240.6%13 W · 19 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-14.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa259…7724backed Yes10c17,950$1,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,794.54520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-49.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ef5…625bbacked Yes15c17,782$2,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,616.830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf445…1f8abacked Yes1c16,723$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.71110%0 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c16,194$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.951015.9%6 W · 95 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+121.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c2e…75eabacked Yes6c15,100$893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$892.847231.9%23 W · 49 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf39…2a2cbacked Yes0c15,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c13,870$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.041490.7%1 W · 148 L-0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid-80.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…d7d6backed Yes4c13,098$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.89375.4%2 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-66.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87d3…0e8bbacked Yes8c13,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fe1…6905backed Yes2c13,000$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes1c12,010$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.056417.2%11 W · 53 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+163.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d1e…bad8backed Yes2c11,991$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x361a…db54backed Yes9c11,684$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.9850%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6e9…7415backed Yes5c10,649$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92d9…f923backed Yes4c10,632$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86d…a948backed Yes6c10,616$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2bc…2907backed Yes3c10,257$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x329d…0ec7backed Yes0c10,100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1531.9%1 W · 52 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-97.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5fe…b52dbacked Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40362.8%1 W · 35 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…e573backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked Yes3c10,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300432.3%1 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick15cpaid-96.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes2c10,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b5d…f9dabacked Yes6c9,749$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa667…84febacked Yes0c9,468$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…141bbacked Yes3c8,944$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.461910.5%2 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+339.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x051b…ce45backed Yes14c8,895$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9291…a1aebacked Yes8c8,877$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c16…45e9backed Yes3c8,500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a2f…1f59backed Yes3c8,372$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.6660%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e44…67febacked Yes0c8,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933b…ed9abacked Yes3c8,000$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22540%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf1f…ede7backed Yes0c7,913$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.74100%0 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes5c7,900$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.51519.9%15 W · 136 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick6cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked Yes2c7,880$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.22541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-69.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3065…1c02backed Yes1c7,692$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes4c7,585$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.25425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-54.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d6…dde8backed Yes5c6,891$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.13120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe185…5f21backed Yes15c6,458$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.66425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…a960backed No80c6,279$5,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,255.732100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e1…8934backed Yes1c6,250$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…e211backed Yes8c6,250$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc20e…0a5ebacked Yes7c6,232$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.273823.7%9 W · 29 L+0.2wins0.00per pick23cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x730a…51a0backed Yes4c6,110$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.11333.8%5 W · 128 L-10.2wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-83.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc61a…8e82backed Yes2c6,030$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3492%1 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-83.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1005…a843backed Yes6c6,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-44.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbabd…e64bbacked Yes7c5,736$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a34…c226backed Yes3c5,705$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.23315.2%5 W · 28 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-55.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x495c…512bbacked Yes9c5,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50080%0 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e13…a7a6backed Yes11c5,367$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.0140%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xed7f…15dfbacked Yes13c5,331$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.