TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$8,066,295
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,387,053

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,066,295 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef72…3c45backed Yes16c213,764$33,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,740.674528.9%13 W · 32 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f1…2417backed Yes12c146,927$18,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,334.691513.3%2 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f26…d136backed No72c134,098$96,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,369.41968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes24c113,885$27,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,147.75659.2%6 W · 59 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-77.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebaa…abacbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100362.8%1 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-68.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d53…c3cbbacked Yes38c85,595$32,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,377.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+57%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8029…bafcbacked No70c80,842$56,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,984.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57c7…a2febacked No77c74,020$56,846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,174.34742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick67cpaid-44.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0513…6ee8backed Yes32c73,681$23,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,222.371338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+47%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3169…21b4backed No62c71,427$44,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,209.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8fa…77b5backed Yes13c65,146$8,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,690.951050%5 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x69a0…3eafbacked Yes32c61,279$19,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,869.651225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b0d…d28dbacked Yes42c58,075$24,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,533.1230%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x95d4…c38cbacked No59c57,654$34,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,437.862540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e48…95c7backed No63c55,110$34,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,501.46966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a1…9dcebacked Yes22c53,659$11,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,565.212321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6846…b797backed No61c51,095$31,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,036.16875%6 W · 2 L+2.5wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+72.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x55a0…b876backed No66c49,989$33,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,913.61475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d19…733abacked No68c47,164$32,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,881.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No71c44,530$31,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,011.325034%17 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid+35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2c9…9c10backed No75c43,311$32,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,827.3514337.1%53 W · 90 L-0.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-30.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee9…7ecbbacked Yes28c42,182$11,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,664.687828.4%249 W · 629 L+2.9wins0.00per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ba7…fbaabacked No68c41,917$28,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,598.292100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e2c…9294backed No66c31,390$20,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,682.265100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f61…011abacked No62c31,380$19,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,881250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb63a…4064backed No77c29,995$23,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,975.4117231.4%54 W · 118 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Yes46c29,941$13,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,816.3511554.8%63 W · 52 L+15.1wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xdd40…73a2backed Yes36c29,539$10,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,677.061118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-61.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb373…c8b0backed Yes4c29,346$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Yes64c28,799$18,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,334.23728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fc…5ca4backed Yes57c28,597$16,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,288.5125824%62 W · 196 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbcb4…b811backed Yes33c28,000$9,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,231.981729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.10per pick20cpaid+49.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08a5…f734backed Yes36c27,313$9,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,750.3860%0 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc504…7a4cbacked No73c27,160$19,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,453.112737%10 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ff3…b0febacked Yes43c27,000$11,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,487.937123.9%17 W · 54 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-23.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97bc…30cdbacked Yes28c26,724$7,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5656723.9%16 W · 51 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick18cpaid+111.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e50…2a28backed Yes20c26,323$5,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,255.88742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+74.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes33c26,102$8,651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,651.111533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes1c25,652$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.78140%0 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1846…aefebacked No67c25,313$16,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,344.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4044…8de5backed No39c25,252$9,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,295.293100%3 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+360.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x22e6…409fbacked Yes32c25,014$7,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,996.634721.3%10 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a65…d68cbacked Yes1c24,994$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdff…806ebacked No48c24,762$11,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,853.632161.9%13 W · 8 L+3.8wins+0.18per pick44cpaid+47.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xea29…43e3backed Yes22c23,044$5,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,059.694330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f62…2ce6backed Yes31c22,342$7,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,002.6110313.6%14 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c22,292$3,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,938.3664812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1fd5…cf04backed Yes39c22,033$8,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,528.771233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-52.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5457…dd0dbacked No70c21,668$15,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,500.48250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes60c20,898$12,569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,569.261776.5%13 W · 4 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick57cpaid+38.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a4f…81c5backed No70c20,007$14,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,914.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a79…b1a8backed No49c20,000$9,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf25…3b7fbacked No64c19,678$12,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,099.451450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecdf…6c07backed Yes5c19,643$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No74c19,395$14,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,945.962528%7 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69c4…13ebbacked Yes6c19,300$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.6520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c86…c4f6backed No44c19,222$8,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,731.72944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb267…5f55backed No46c18,895$8,627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,268.19742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes26c18,672$4,843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,843.466111.5%7 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick18cpaid-65.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e8d…4bd2backed No40c18,401$7,368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,033.142100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+97.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50ea…48dbbacked No77c17,874$13,685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,189.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes6c17,709$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.42306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x707e…1960backed No72c17,681$12,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,897.522550.2%113 W · 112 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70a4…eff2backed Yes26c17,566$4,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,611.098713.8%12 W · 75 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-29.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27a2…dd48backed Yes14c17,433$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc92c…7750backed Yes18c17,283$3,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,124.89520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e20…d6ddbacked No57c17,279$9,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,453.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea96…11e3backed Yes27c17,000$4,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,637.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a8f…64a7backed Yes15c16,885$2,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,492.51250%6 W · 6 L+2.8wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+242.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2698…a979backed No68c16,819$11,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,463.683225%8 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d29…19aebacked No79c16,311$12,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,481.933100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked No77c16,127$12,465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,661.65869%40 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfca4…1dd4backed No66c15,152$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,152.342100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed Yes0c15,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202290%0 W · 229 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…c4d0backed No77c14,975$11,548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,426.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c14,954$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,109.51,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eba…33bdbacked Yes33c14,921$4,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,939.620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e66…668fbacked Yes55c14,908$8,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,213.92520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-73.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf57…77c7backed Yes4c14,420$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.56244.2%1 W · 23 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-78%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c14,266$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.066785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9343…8fd4backed No69c14,226$9,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,420.641080%8 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bf7…1b90backed Yes32c14,037$4,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,515.55425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-38.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1de…ffd8backed No72c13,889$9,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,893.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes32c13,735$4,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,393.531457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4d1…8ce8backed No56c13,617$7,639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,977.76450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46d3…62e0backed Yes14c13,486$1,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,949.68955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb50c…215bbacked Yes35c13,371$4,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,741.59825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-45%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d14…f8bdbacked No62c13,297$8,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,048.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes45c13,261$6,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0251233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-31.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0540…98ebbacked No62c13,121$8,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,922.582138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd4b…8aa4backed Yes51c12,496$6,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,337.372259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f5…ea4ebacked Yes20c12,260$2,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,443.2118425%46 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc632…55bebacked Yes2c12,158$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.193611.1%4 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c98…ef88backed Yes17c12,035$2,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,033.62494.1%2 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick7cpaid-79.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes27c12,000$3,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,243.232347.8%11 W · 12 L+5.1wins+0.22per pick26cpaid+84.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes50c11,874$5,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,951.553836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc12a…dc73backed No65c11,691$7,545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,146.24050%20 W · 20 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-18.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x18e8…9847backed Yes50c11,666$5,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,867.930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0bd…f6a8backed Yes35c11,462$4,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,053.211020%2 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-47.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90aa…1e72backed No71c11,274$7,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,291.11425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-64.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.