TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x0e2c…9294

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
148
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 55 out of 100; worst Commodities at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT9946.5%46 W · 53 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 99 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$259.06
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+59%+$50.34
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$718Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+29.5%+$211.63
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+95.4%+$24.73
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.4
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$337Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$337.46
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$117.01
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+55.5%+$11.06
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$946Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$945.71
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$692Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+58.6%+$405.22
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.96
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$134.83
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.21
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.84
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$40.68
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+41.4%+$25.44
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$11.94
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.95
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$934Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+135.8%+$1,267.86
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$913Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+105.9%+$966.9
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.12
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+102.6%+$68.64
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+63.1%+$15.95
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$421Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+159.6%+$671.72
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.4
Showing 25 of 99 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT1428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-61.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Commodities — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$571Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$570.7
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.8
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.96
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.5
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$285.71
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+31.1%+$29.11
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+44.7%+$42.1
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$38
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.14
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.87
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$218.85
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.96
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$52.82
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$3,538Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+25%+$886.15
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Aug 2, 2026, EDT977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick68cpaid+16%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.18
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$1,111Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+40.7%+$451.85
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+64.4%+$11.48
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$177Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$176.78
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+49%+$12.99
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$34.97
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+37%+$62.87
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+42%+$24.1
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+73.1%+$25.42
All 9 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT5100%5 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-33.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$248Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+132.9%+$329.41
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+63.5%+$135.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$226Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+57.8%+$130.64
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$222Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$91.58
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+47%+$68.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Government shutdown on Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+44.5%+$38.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$814Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+31.7%+$258.18
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.