China Taiwan · resolved market
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e045734da5d2a0743da450cc5cff8e2c1e1298a9731f7fbadd7c13823c5c79c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,332,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,419,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,332,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,688 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes | 17c | 709,628$123,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586,426.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 8cpaid | +92%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c7…5ddbbacked No | 79c | 63,366$50,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,314 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 78c | 46,655$36,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,374.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed No | 0c | 39,119$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed No | 20c | 34,764$7,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,045.23 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 55c | 32,963$18,059 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,058.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…cb8cbacked No | 80c | 31,484$25,122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,121.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…f7aabacked No | 42c | 30,597$12,855 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,854.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 41c | 28,625$11,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,784.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 67c | 25,598$17,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,111.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…1338backed No | 76c | 19,000$14,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,447.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…8db4backed No | 36c | 17,960$6,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,435.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb5…7d34backed No | 2c | 16,323$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…5ef3backed No | 77c | 15,215$11,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,791.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 56c | 15,115$8,433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,432.96 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…1b7fbacked No | 77c | 14,913$11,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,505.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 34c | 14,664$4,914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,913.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd2…0bd8backed No | 78c | 14,514$11,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,313.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 69c | 14,421$9,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,970.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0a…6027backed No | 55c | 14,289$7,811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,810.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 37c | 13,690$5,054 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,053.58 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.24per pick | 41cpaid | +75.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 27c | 13,642$3,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,931.73 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…aa2cbacked No | 80c | 13,433$10,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,702.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 43c | 12,956$5,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,569.42 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.35per pick | 43cpaid | -85.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a5…f6a4backed No | 78c | 11,351$8,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf8…b8eabacked No | 78c | 11,160$8,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,710.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 33c | 11,111$3,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,666.63 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3b…0cadbacked Yes | 64c | 11,078$7,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,957.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1d…bbf0backed Yes | 65c | 11,023$7,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,880.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 35c | 10,768$3,762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,006.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +186.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81e5…e9bcbacked No | 79c | 10,698$8,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,407.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed No | 38c | 10,611$4,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,022.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 79c | 10,000$7,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,900 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 79c | 9,952$7,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,814.67 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +7.5wins | +0.42per pick | 53cpaid | +107.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 19c | 9,847$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,967.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9a…f3bbbacked No | 37c | 9,693$3,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,566.51 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfa…7fa8backed Yes | 12c | 9,499$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,398.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +762.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4004…c40bbacked No | 77c | 9,248$7,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,130.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked No | 50c | 9,246$4,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,620.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 64c | 8,954$5,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,179.21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd600…b66ebacked Yes | 17c | 8,829$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,291.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +474.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac80…97b1backed No | 75c | 8,421$6,316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,315.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 18c | 8,265$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,802.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +126.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 48c | 8,000$3,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,852.12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 22c | 7,829$1,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,096.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked No | 79c | 7,646$6,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,003.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 71c | 7,579$5,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,373.66 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 45c | 7,244$3,294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,949.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +4.2wins | +0.32per pick | 22cpaid | +108.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 17c | 7,163$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,971.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +200.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05df…882dbacked No | 42c | 7,154$3,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,027.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 47c | 6,870$3,259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,611.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed Yes | 36c | 6,744$2,397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,346.17 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 63c | 6,540$4,103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,437.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd52b…5c72backed No | 47c | 6,361$2,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,981.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…5b3ebacked No | 78c | 6,290$4,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,902.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed No | 39c | 5,949$2,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,291.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 43c | 5,694$2,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,450.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 25cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf67f…31cfbacked No | 35c | 5,252$1,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…10c2backed Yes | 38c | 5,186$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,236.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.49per pick | 31cpaid | +186.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…0288backed No | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…e125backed No | 63c | 4,800$3,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,031 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1008…6a65backed Yes | 18c | 4,525$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,728.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +1,302.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 67c | 4,508$3,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,017.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5188…c804backed No | 33c | 4,414$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,442.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…990fbacked No | 71c | 4,363$3,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,078.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 48c | 4,271$2,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,242.15 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3054…69c5backed No | 78c | 4,249$3,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,332.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…d19bbacked Yes | 22c | 4,143$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,230.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +353.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a2…0b35backed Yes | 22c | 4,129$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,220.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90bf…3348backed No | 43c | 3,400$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 62c | 3,255$2,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,239.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…9d95backed No | 78c | 3,161$2,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,478.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed Yes | 65c | 3,147$2,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.44 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed Yes | 24c | 3,100$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,368.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +323.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…8366backed Yes | 14c | 2,951$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,550.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +268.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 36c | 2,879$1,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed Yes | 65c | 2,800$1,830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f47…d66ebacked Yes | 72c | 2,769$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 2,765$2,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,128.93 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcf59…2c10backed No | 75c | 2,750$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,062.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,667$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,078.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +353.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x659c…a086backed No | 78c | 2,643$2,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,067.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 42c | 2,616$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,109.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 55c | 2,595$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.81 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 48c | 2,524$1,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,218.47 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…c41cbacked No | 40c | 2,492$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked No | 41c | 2,417$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…829abacked Yes | 41c | 2,381$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,403.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…f333backed No | 33c | 2,340$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 76c | 2,290$1,735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,735.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 32c | 2,285$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,547.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 35c | 2,255$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…bc37backed No | 75c | 2,252$1,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,684.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 30c | 2,250$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.63 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 44c | 2,242$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.47 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 37c | 2,088$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 63c | 2,055$1,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +401.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 61c | 2,010$1,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,231.8 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 39c | 2,006$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +166.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.