TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd5cc…dea4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
205
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Weather, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 60 out of 100; worst China Taiwan at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT11647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 116 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+490.9%+$239.98
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.75
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$1,203Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,203.26
Will Russia target Kyiv by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT+83.5%+$18.2
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$635Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$634.67
Will Oleksandr Syrskyi be out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$664Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$664.22
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$345Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.9%+$92.88
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$465Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$123.57
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$5,618Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+28%+$1,571.61
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$286
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$978Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+152.2%+$1,488.08
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$358Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+69.9%+$250.23
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+161.2%+$65.24
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$140.96
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$42,474Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+90.7%+$38,526
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$3,665Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,665.47
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.42
Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$261Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$260.56
Will Ukraine join the Board of Peace?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.34
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.5
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$10,091Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10,090.75
Will Russia capture Pokrovka by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+112.8%+$155.48
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+325.7%+$191.28
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,444Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+37.9%+$546.75
Showing 25 of 116 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 13, 2026, EDT2445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$1,457Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,456.53
Iran successfully targets shipping by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$238Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+150%+$356.55
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+33.7%+$129.53
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$3,781Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+59.7%+$2,258.4
Will Iran strike Israel on March 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$142Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$142.39
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$23,640Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$23,639.91
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+25%+$12.97
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$26,620Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$26,620
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$11.05
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$53
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+148.7%+$282.83
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$240
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,515Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+47.1%+$713.02
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$427Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$427
Iran ballistic missile strike on Israel by Friday? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$4,030Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2025, EDT+30.7%+$1,235.53
Israel military action against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,910Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,909.81
Israel retaliates against Houthis before May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$33.85
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$13.9
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST-100%-$130.57
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$4,086Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2024, EST-100%-$4,085.85
Israel military response against Iran in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$7,904Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2024, EDT-100%-$7,904.48
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,137Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 19, 2024, EDT+164%+$1,865.09
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT+165%+$624.58
Will Israel invade Lebanon in September?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2024, EDT+172.1%+$636.24
All 24 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.7wins+0.23per pick33cpaid+43.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Weather — the 16 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Megaquake by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.06
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.83
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.01
Will there be 5 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.77
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.86
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$264Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+692.8%+$1,828.7
Will there be at least 1,050 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$615Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+40.1%+$247.06
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$75.49
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+139%+$170.61
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$134.62
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,207Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT+90%+$1,086.68
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$549Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT+82.1%+$451
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$4,732Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT+52.3%+$2,475.78
Earthquake 7.0 or above by August 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$750Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$250
Earthquake 7.0 or above by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2025, EDT+160.8%+$353.87
Earthquake 7.0 or above before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$382Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 16, 2025, EDT+109.1%+$417.26
All 16 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 11, 2026, EST1118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-48.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Over $20M committed to the Trove public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$90.82
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$421Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$420.54
Over $40M committed to the Infinex public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$241Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$241.08
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST+300%+$64.69
Over $120M committed to the Solomon public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$38.12
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$51,784Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$51,784.04
Over 150,000 bidders in the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$417Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+67.9%+$283
Over $1.4B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$49
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,960Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,959.94
Will Monad perform an airdrop by September 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$6,349Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$6,348.56
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+43.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Sep 16, 2025, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-68.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 23, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Space Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+247.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Space — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoevenbacked Usyk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$10,878Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$4,266.5
Will Fury beat Usyk?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2024, EST-100%-$500
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Nov 4, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip below $100k before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32,911Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST+85.3%+$28,078.82
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Oct 9, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the HBO documentary identify someone else as Satoshi?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 9, 2024, EDT+35.1%+$26
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Sep 29, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
NFL Week 4: Dirty Bird Specialbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,654Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2024, EDT+25.7%+$425.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Conor McGregor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,505Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,505
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$7,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$7,900
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.