TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,706
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$64,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,706 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9238…b73ebacked Yes47c4,263$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,245.2235341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc93f…445dbacked No3c2,242$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb57a…7d26backed No14c1,836$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc984…37cabacked No72c1,818$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.232133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe762…064bbacked Yes49c1,747$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.9311645.7%53 W · 63 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6d2…7048backed No21c1,635$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.57128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick15cpaid-71.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No8c1,556$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.811024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xef73…c3c7backed No66c1,512$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Yes34c1,390$473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.39366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+64.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes49c1,162$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$594.516437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea9…1651backed No18c1,040$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8982…af89backed No3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff52…4546backed No20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No3c937.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.26432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d4…886ebacked No64c780.91$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc109…450bbacked Yes52c710.71$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.066136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda7…7b78backed No2c692.26$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb977…3158backed No3c676.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b22…3a92backed Yes57c655.99$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.326944.9%31 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…a6cbbacked No7c586.81$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x693c…a7edbacked No3c566.67$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7753…e9fabacked No11c500.46$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ab…42a1backed No71c500$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.31302.3%3 W · 127 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-68.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefe…2d45backed No2c499.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c97…4569backed No52c488.13$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.865133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1666…fe57backed No3c466.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x848d…35e6backed Yes57c458.67$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.727360.3%44 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x857c…d97ebacked No24c436.64$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes36c433.8$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.138639.5%34 W · 52 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Yes52c413.12$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.495754.4%31 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38f1…24e0backed No6c366.67$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x673f…7388backed No3c366.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3fe…6800backed No27c364.76$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29a1…5645backed Yes70c354.29$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.086142.6%26 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f0…c9e4backed Yes33c349$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.83250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2c4…a40abacked No29c341.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa9f…0df3backed No61c335.51$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.536028.3%17 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed Yes75c310$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.31963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Yes40c308.45$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.7424258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x936a…7a5abacked No64c300$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+51.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd054…7e38backed No72c299.99$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2164050%20 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ffb…4966backed Yes28c299.98$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee25…7cd3backed No66c292.67$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.394131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x645a…fd84backed No61c289.87$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1776654.5%36 W · 30 L-6.1wins-0.09per pick64cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4af2…3e4ebacked Yes33c271.32$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.621866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+31.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c269.84$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.685327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4699…7822backed Yes72c264.1$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.16160.7%37 W · 24 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7216…cb34backed Yes38c260$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.23636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+38.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No71c257$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.926835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xe329…f209backed No4c250.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x517b…be02backed No24c250.16$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No61c250$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.711741%48 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3f6f…e536backed No4c241.07$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes39c231.08$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.9611647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7253…9190backed Yes35c209$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.755147.1%24 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes71c206.82$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.641957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd077…b875backed Yes28c200$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1441100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+257.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes80c190.47$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.097735.1%27 W · 50 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5fa…a1ddbacked Yes28c178.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.574158.5%24 W · 17 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+53%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdf54…d6d9backed No58c171.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked No72c170.83$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1237462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6c5…1e30backed No72c169.44$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+38.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes73c165.5$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.9313128.2%37 W · 94 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes76c163.27$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.6930837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes33c154.46$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.663351.5%17 W · 16 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+45.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c146$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1741736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x56e7…c783backed No21c142.85$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes36c138.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.7712225.4%31 W · 91 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef95…88c0backed Yes37c136.82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.821233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d39…8f74backed Yes39c128.62$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.62450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccfc…678ebacked No23c128.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x703d…80f6backed No28c126.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352934.5%10 W · 19 L-5.9wins-0.20per pick55cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf3b0…0027backed No61c120$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.2425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-59.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes37c118.82$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.6211840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed Yes36c105$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.27851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Yes36c100$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642825%7 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes33c100$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6714355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x42b9…ded7backed Yes74c91.6$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.243560%21 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes35c90.84$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.857518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc042…77bcbacked Yes42c89.58$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+136.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa08c…dc50backed Yes80c81.89$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.381735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29ce…e196backed No78c80.9$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed Yes35c79$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.351163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+38.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x635e…1f63backed Yes34c78.15$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.45333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes50c76.08$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.893438.2%13 W · 21 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8030…7b74backed No23c73.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.54628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1536…7f40backed Yes34c73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.18757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5e…75a4backed No23c72.86$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes36c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.85337.7%20 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c32…9ef8backed No71c61.43$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.71275%9 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No26c61.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.074544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3339429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3237…5658backed No64c60$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-45.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No62c60$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.29341.9%39 W · 54 L-9.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-21.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdfdb…703dbacked No21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.62040%8 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5018…398bbacked No52c57.99$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.161030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-39.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2889…fc69backed Yes30c57$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.96061.7%37 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeec9…be9dbacked No22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1140%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.