Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc02a6a54caaa193d06b1d9eb01af23e082133cdfc9892885c69831edd26cb2e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,741
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 27c | 5,322$1,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,432 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 71c | 1,793$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.87 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +29%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 38c | 1,765$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.22 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3462…de48backed Yes | 38c | 1,400$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 30c | 1,349$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.66 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7216…cb34backed Yes | 38c | 1,292$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.87 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 71c | 1,129$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.74 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 71c | 1,027$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.59 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 62c | 1,008$621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.08 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 71c | 1,000$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.55 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 25c | 879.46$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325a…a634backed Yes | 22c | 877$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed No | 78c | 867$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddf7…5122backed No | 78c | 837$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…cf60backed No | 60c | 834$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a8…9b29backed Yes | 22c | 827$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.94 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed0…0532backed No | 77c | 824$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6702…0051backed Yes | 23c | 824$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 59c | 820.57$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.94 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…c50ebacked No | 72c | 754.5$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 70cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 37c | 639.15$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.24 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 58c | 622.03$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.76 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked No | 57c | 614.99$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.84 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d3…52b9backed Yes | 29c | 599.99$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf130…88ddbacked Yes | 29c | 499.69$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.67 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…da0ebacked No | 48c | 458$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 70c | 444.59$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.6 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 430.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 9c | 400$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4604…444abacked No | 73c | 376.99$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.69 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 40c | 364.62$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.15 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 72c | 363.75$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…7269backed No | 74c | 362.45$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 40c | 358.94$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 39c | 337.79$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.08 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 27c | 304.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eec…f4e2backed Yes | 24c | 284.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +585.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 21c | 284.31$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.95 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 37c | 267.4$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 18c | 239.4$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.26 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x529e…33e3backed Yes | 34c | 234.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 36c | 228$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.16 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 225.45$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.12 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad3…faa6backed No | 70c | 221.05$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.81 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed Yes | 52c | 211.06$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.25 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 74c | 209.41$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.56 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9db…d937backed No | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 72c | 165$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e2…6dc5backed Yes | 28c | 165$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 152.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 36c | 150.73$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…886ebacked No | 69c | 145.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b7…2b1bbacked No | 76c | 132.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +166.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6cd…e027backed Yes | 40c | 127.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…67fabacked No | 61c | 117$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 27c | 105.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc002…6f57backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 27c | 97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…2f9dbacked No | 69c | 87.29$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.29 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…7b4abacked No | 60c | 83.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x743d…f77ebacked No | 71c | 80.85$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 73c | 79$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed No | 74c | 72.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +110.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fe…b5d1backed No | 66c | 72.1$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 80c | 70.76$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 57c | 69.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 35c | 68.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 29c | 65.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9798backed Yes | 32c | 62.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e2…93c1backed Yes | 51c | 58.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba23…814dbacked No | 71c | 56.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 40c | 55.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94a…0ff1backed Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…6388backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 40c | 52.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed No | 62c | 52.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed No | 60c | 52.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb79c…2a7bbacked No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 49.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…1df2backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ce…0026backed Yes | 43c | 46.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e8…40a3backed No | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc405…4affbacked Yes | 41c | 43.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 55c | 41.76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 39.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x289e…5802backed Yes | 42c | 35.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…f825backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8baf…39d1backed Yes | 40c | 31.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -60%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9573…25cdbacked No | 71c | 29.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 42c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 69c | 27.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked Yes | 38c | 26.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed No | 72c | 19.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.