Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xce1dcfe1f4c4229df06193ccbd8460b40c47387b518ff965696926c33fd9502c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,727
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,158
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,727 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8631…9a73backed Yes | 25c | 3,880$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.43 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc48f…87d8backed No | 76c | 1,361$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.71 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +154.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c07…08c5backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef95…88c0backed Yes | 20c | 790.87$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 16c | 759.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 15c | 749.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 22c | 727.27$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 17c | 707$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…b5e3backed Yes | 17c | 666$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 7c | 650$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…7d60backed Yes | 14c | 574$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1220…741abacked Yes | 14c | 559$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 13c | 549.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5829…e46bbacked Yes | 17c | 534$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked Yes | 17c | 527$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d35…23c1backed Yes | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 19c | 497$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 14c | 453.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.56 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 12c | 383.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 24c | 332.43$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 32c | 312.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 16c | 299.04$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb146…c098backed Yes | 19c | 297.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 27c | 290.77$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 289.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e0…4eb7backed Yes | 14c | 276.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce83…5b97backed No | 80c | 251.01$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes | 21c | 244.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 14c | 227.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2801…ebdcbacked Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +118.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 25c | 191.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 188.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 17c | 182.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 16c | 149.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 15c | 131.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f7…ebccbacked Yes | 17c | 120.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc109…450bbacked Yes | 13c | 118.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 79c | 112.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa0…72d6backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4518…1cacbacked Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 16c | 92.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 14c | 88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…c097backed Yes | 12c | 86.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 18c | 68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d43…f5a9backed Yes | 18c | 62.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…5645backed Yes | 19c | 59.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 17c | 59.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2b…aa1dbacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae78…9275backed No | 79c | 30.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 69c | 21.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc7…4572backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd2…abdebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 78c | 18.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?this page
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by January 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.