Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by January 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6be38f42825a994c27ba881d21c48aa7d645865b3704a3ae6f324760733146b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5144…7941backed Yes | 27c | 1,487$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed No | 79c | 1,270$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.23 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 5c | 985.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b9…ded7backed No | 80c | 965.99$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.21 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…ec13backed No | 80c | 800$640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7a…ecc6backed Yes | 20c | 800$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 791.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 70c | 760.11$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.59 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…6d90backed No | 71c | 596$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…f00ebacked Yes | 29c | 561$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 20c | 558.36$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec6…e720backed Yes | 20c | 550$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…37febacked No | 80c | 550$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed No | 63c | 522.14$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.62 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…f8a1backed Yes | 12c | 517$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe229…bee3backed Yes | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88d4…ffb3backed Yes | 32c | 474.58$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffc…cf45backed Yes | 16c | 459.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbed5…4ea8backed Yes | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 13c | 326.23$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9a…b801backed No | 75c | 316.81$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…9356backed No | 77c | 299.99$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5b…f1fbbacked Yes | 20c | 298$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…0d5bbacked No | 69c | 294.52$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes | 29c | 279$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…be54backed Yes | 20c | 254.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 20c | 243.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.74 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 21c | 219.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2afd…deb4backed Yes | 6c | 215.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 206.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 70c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3262…8a46backed Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99a5…c0c7backed Yes | 24c | 186.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…7e8fbacked Yes | 27c | 185.07$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 185$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.37 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 74c | 183.98$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed No | 71c | 173$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 78c | 127.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fe…ce41backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdacb…36ecbacked No | 79c | 124.8$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4a7…9aa0backed Yes | 14c | 121.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 25c | 119.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 25c | 102.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 17c | 101$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabe8…56d3backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.26per pick | 13cpaid | +249.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed Yes | 17c | 90.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 20c | 88.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 171 | 22.2%38 W · 133 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 86.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 85.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ff…0966backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x739c…a146backed No | 67c | 74.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed No | 71c | 71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ae…9532backed No | 72c | 69.87$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa519…26f8backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4e…7c1abacked Yes | 47c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…8ddfbacked No | 80c | 52.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f7…8917backed No | 80c | 51.25$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85fe…51ffbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f72…d9dfbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6a…b584backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed No | 76c | 48.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.51 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…87aabacked Yes | 26c | 45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 78c | 44.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 75c | 43.36$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 44 | 75%33 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed Yes | 30c | 41.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bb…d87cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…0b88backed Yes | 38c | 37.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…010bbacked Yes | 30c | 33.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 73c | 20.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 82 | 32.9%27 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b2…b7febacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe160…f12fbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cbd…74cfbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7b…a114backed No | 77c | 16.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.79 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by January 31?this page
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by April 30?No won
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by February 28?No won
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by March 31?No won
- Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.