TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5602…c12b

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
68
Categories scored
7
Categories below 50
2

Best Category: Middle East, grading 65 out of 100 (+0.14 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 65 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 49.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST2835.7%10 W · 18 L+7.3wins+0.26per pick10cpaid+359.5%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+1,246.2%+$648
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+614.3%+$86
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+400%+$80
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+3,042.9%+$2,130
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+2,021.2%+$1,334
Odds of Khamenei out in Jan over 20% on Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+809.1%+$89
Israel strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+733.3%+$88
Will the US strike Iran next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+408.7%+$87.85
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$21.08
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$148.11
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$33
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+400%+$80
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$198
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST-100%-$99
Will the US strike Somalia next?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$18
Will the US strike Syria next?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$70
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$37
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$34
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$20.84
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$34.57
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$30.34
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 3, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick10cpaid+55.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro trial scheduled by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+426.3%+$53.88
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$14
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$36.75
Maduro in U.S. custody by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$65
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+1,392.5%+$263.32
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Maduro out by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$14
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+521.1%+$83.9
Will there be five or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Will there be exactly four announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Will there be exactly one announced new U.S. armed forces strike against drug boats in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$24.3
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$78
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$21
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 17 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick13cpaid+249.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Ukraine strikes another tanker in Black Sea by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$49
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+539.5%+$154.64
Another ATACMS strike into Russian territory by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+1,150%+$276
EU agrees use of Russian assets to fund Ukraine by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+426.3%+$81
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 6–10 seconds?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+400%+$80
Will Trump and Zelenskyy’s handshake last 2–6 seconds?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST+1,525.8%+$733.84
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$11.2
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Russia enter Hryshyne by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$14
All 13 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+793.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Apr 10, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$82
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$33.3
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.