Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd3fe5cfce44f9c884390f0aa38fff07ec2625432609c1c1f0c2dd03d0da8dda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,357,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $781,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,357,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 453 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bd1…4440backed Yes | 0c | 29,380$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa21…1438backed Yes | 31c | 27,938$8,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,595.48 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 76c | 22,350$16,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,457.01 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 21,758$4,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,497.11 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad2e…d9bdbacked Yes | 31c | 18,741$5,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,726.14 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 11c | 15,105$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.13 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ad…5e58backed Yes | 0c | 14,814$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef39…3d0cbacked Yes | 0c | 14,814$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3845…a028backed Yes | 0c | 14,690$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e2…6eabbacked Yes | 0c | 14,690$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642f…5b04backed Yes | 0c | 14,690$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b3…4135backed Yes | 0c | 13,735$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 21c | 13,618$2,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,796.76 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x631f…578ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,922$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…db11backed Yes | 0c | 12,922$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…92dfbacked Yes | 0c | 12,922$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8e6dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,765$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 2c | 12,343$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.77 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 18c | 12,179$2,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,190.37 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d22…5ed4backed Yes | 0c | 12,168$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…26dcbacked Yes | 0c | 12,168$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…978fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,166$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…0df8backed Yes | 0c | 12,166$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 30c | 11,803$3,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,503.72 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.6wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7744…999ebacked Yes | 13c | 11,545$1,510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.43 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…1ca0backed Yes | 0c | 11,532$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…b7a5backed Yes | 0c | 11,294$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8605…2a19backed Yes | 0c | 11,237$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d38…6f6ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,638$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x238e…1bd0backed Yes | 0c | 10,618$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4940…a91cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,285$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5ae…85d1backed Yes | 3c | 9,836$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f4…dfe7backed Yes | 0c | 8,458$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 69c | 7,881$5,441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440.54 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Yes | 12c | 7,440$874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.88 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 77c | 7,373$5,649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,723.62 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 7,056$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.57 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 18c | 6,908$1,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.9 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc0…8a4dbacked Yes | 22c | 6,793$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.89 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 16c | 6,618$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.14 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 12c | 5,535$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.6 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x118e…49bcbacked Yes | 33c | 5,038$1,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.4wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +112.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed No | 68c | 5,000$3,380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,620 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed No | 74c | 5,000$3,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.35 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 23c | 4,713$1,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,087.39 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 15c | 4,693$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.83 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 9c | 4,398$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.71 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…881bbacked No | 79c | 4,326$3,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.97 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -16.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 11c | 4,221$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.56 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54bb…59c7backed Yes | 26c | 4,031$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 164 | 17.7%29 W · 135 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 3,974$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.29 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5d…91d8backed Yes | 14c | 3,954$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.93 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…8ca5backed Yes | 17c | 3,890$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 17c | 3,761$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.93 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf94…a793backed Yes | 12c | 3,617$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 3c | 3,576$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.45 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…f379backed Yes | 21c | 3,558$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 16c | 3,476$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.41 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 3,429$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.58 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c0…fe99backed Yes | 26c | 3,421$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 24cpaid | +90.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c6…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 3,327$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9c…9b1dbacked Yes | 14c | 3,117$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.02 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 4c | 3,043$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.46 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…5b8dbacked Yes | 15c | 3,025$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.56 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 25c | 3,024$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.01 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 11c | 3,000$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 30c | 3,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 68c | 2,989$2,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.47 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb5…e485backed Yes | 9c | 2,977$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14ff…74edbacked Yes | 14c | 2,687$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.82 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8989…6e14backed Yes | 6c | 2,500$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes | 25c | 2,357$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe08b…9d23backed Yes | 20c | 2,356$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…de4ebacked Yes | 46c | 2,294$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.43 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,286$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.69 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…c919backed Yes | 18c | 2,221$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 2,201$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.72 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb403…4ce3backed Yes | 10c | 2,195$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…bdfebacked Yes | 9c | 2,190$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.39 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879a…bee8backed No | 63c | 2,081$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$774.07 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20a0…7563backed Yes | 16c | 2,066$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 1,988$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf7…27b3backed Yes | 11c | 1,913$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 11c | 1,912$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.62 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 7c | 1,884$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.46 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e6…0f21backed Yes | 4c | 1,870$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 123 | 30.1%37 W · 86 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd750…e32cbacked No | 49c | 1,838$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.56 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,754$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.24 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…4faabacked Yes | 12c | 1,727$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…5dffbacked Yes | 12c | 1,660$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b01…8f47backed Yes | 2c | 1,650$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 13c | 1,594$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.09 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…ea02backed Yes | 38c | 1,557$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$594.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 44c | 1,542$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.32 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…38abbacked Yes | 15c | 1,522$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…5f96backed Yes | 24c | 1,510$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…f5e6backed Yes | 23c | 1,500$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…6a1abacked Yes | 38c | 1,500$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc7…05ccbacked Yes | 44c | 1,465$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…1fb6backed Yes | 17c | 1,442$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.