Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f752d99a74379bc4a8466778fb5cd0b6037101a3173591fdbbed18762a68c25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,514,603
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,018,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,514,603 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27fe…a4bdbacked Yes | 0c | 164,167$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 1c | 110,566$1,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,376.39 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 2c | 75,193$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,236.59 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f4d…6c41backed Yes | 2c | 27,225$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…bdfebacked Yes | 1c | 27,000$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.07 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 2c | 23,848$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.82 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 2c | 22,790$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.47 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 19,487$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.74 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 2c | 18,652$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.79 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 17,045$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 16,370$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.56 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 1c | 16,191$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.6 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 1c | 14,857$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.74 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…135abacked Yes | 5c | 14,610$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.01 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…d50abacked Yes | 3c | 14,466$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.45 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…3994backed Yes | 3c | 14,255$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 14,042$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.29 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 1c | 13,546$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.53 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 1c | 12,997$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.34 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 2c | 12,800$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.2 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 1c | 11,369$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.27 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…f440backed Yes | 1c | 10,752$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 2c | 10,549$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.23 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 1c | 10,342$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x845c…a80fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.73 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 1c | 9,388$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.04 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56d…21b8backed Yes | 2c | 9,268$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.59 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5408…590fbacked Yes | 3c | 8,619$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 1c | 8,012$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.37 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 7,845$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.04 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 2c | 6,950$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 94 | 10.6%10 W · 84 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 2c | 6,628$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.99 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 6,497$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…689bbacked Yes | 3c | 6,257$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.69 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 1c | 6,256$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…4b79backed Yes | 2c | 6,071$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.41 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,017$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…b75abacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…705ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,461$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 1c | 5,447$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…8e70backed Yes | 2c | 5,440$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 1c | 5,412$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,176$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…420fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,018$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 2.8%1 W · 35 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 2c | 5,001$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.34 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,880$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 4,840$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ea…6f36backed Yes | 2c | 4,776$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4637…fd78backed Yes | 2c | 4,610$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.2 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…aeafbacked Yes | 1c | 4,579$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 3cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…b4adbacked Yes | 2c | 4,499$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc157…728cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,157$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.14 | 84 | 27.4%23 W · 61 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,145$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.73 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…8197backed Yes | 2c | 4,126$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…6639backed Yes | 2c | 4,031$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.57 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 3,997$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.61 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 3,988$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…6e71backed Yes | 2c | 3,880$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60bb…d33fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,752$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.64 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08a2…6a59backed Yes | 2c | 3,641$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 2c | 3,504$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6988…9f4ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,458$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd973…643fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 0c | 3,295$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8a…2d31backed Yes | 1c | 3,233$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f50…9451backed Yes | 2c | 3,211$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,096$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 4c | 3,056$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.31 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d73…2345backed Yes | 2c | 3,048$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -47%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,045$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd7c…c170backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c9…65f1backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…4141backed Yes | 2c | 2,990$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.26 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…6669backed Yes | 2c | 2,982$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x247c…45a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,954$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -85.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,944$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.29 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +8.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf55c…0afebacked Yes | 2c | 2,891$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 4c | 2,857$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…0023backed Yes | 3c | 2,838$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,832$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 1c | 2,700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.7 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 1c | 2,592$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 2c | 2,553$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 105 | 13.3%14 W · 91 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bea…7d80backed Yes | 1c | 2,504$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…55e8backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a9…41d1backed Yes | 2c | 2,456$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c8…698abacked Yes | 0c | 2,385$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee69…0c70backed Yes | 2c | 2,376$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbce…a28bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,365$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…8032backed Yes | 2c | 2,338$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…3afcbacked Yes | 3c | 2,265$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 1c | 2,190$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 170 | 3.5%6 W · 164 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c1…0f60backed Yes | 3c | 2,164$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94aa…8265backed Yes | 2c | 2,153$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…9439backed Yes | 2c | 2,123$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…d63fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,085$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…f137backed Yes | 1c | 2,056$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…2038backed Yes | 2c | 2,033$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +200.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes | 2c | 2,031$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.