Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e097ff7e385d5d2ea511f7f8fb03e705dacdf598891cc5d7f68c5086e5c82fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $851,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $740,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $851,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 287 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 1c | 150,050$1,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.5 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x147f…49edbacked Yes | 0c | 11,255$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed Yes | 8c | 9,341$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.11 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 8,802$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.64 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc1…d84dbacked Yes | 2c | 8,488$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 8,405$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.45 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2b…b71ebacked Yes | 5c | 8,155$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x310d…bed0backed Yes | 0c | 8,015$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 7,908$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.51 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 3c | 7,658$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.59 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 7,196$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.09 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 8c | 6,756$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.13 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,717$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 4c | 5,500$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.43 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6184…397abacked Yes | 2c | 5,445$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 5c | 5,094$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.82 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7bb…0fd6backed Yes | 8c | 4,987$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 2c | 4,902$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.81 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdcf…bbbcbacked Yes | 11c | 4,576$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 5c | 4,313$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.85 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9c…dee4backed Yes | 7c | 4,312$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 4c | 4,300$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 4,137$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.05 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe521…a60ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 16cpaid | +257.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x284b…f1ddbacked Yes | 11c | 4,000$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 3,982$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.64 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 8c | 3,941$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.59 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 9c | 3,665$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.62 | 413 | 6.8%28 W · 385 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 3,391$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.67 | 221 | 7.2%16 W · 205 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e38…61b5backed Yes | 15c | 3,380$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.32 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 4c | 3,178$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.84 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a10…ba54backed Yes | 12c | 3,138$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.1 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a3…5f96backed Yes | 3c | 3,065$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1947…cd4fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,047$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…740bbacked Yes | 24c | 2,999$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 1c | 2,909$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.25 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 6c | 2,877$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.49 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06d6…1bb8backed Yes | 4c | 2,826$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ad…ae4bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,724$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…581ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,704$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 75 | 13.3%10 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ff…74edbacked Yes | 10c | 2,517$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…4302backed Yes | 10c | 2,416$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.83 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 2c | 2,406$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,313$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…d1debacked Yes | 17c | 2,270$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…51cabacked Yes | 10c | 2,207$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227 | 135 | 18.5%25 W · 110 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…9309backed Yes | 11c | 2,111$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe08b…9d23backed Yes | 10c | 2,077$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes | 11c | 2,075$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.11 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e1…1e82backed Yes | 9c | 2,048$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92bc…7013backed Yes | 5c | 2,021$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f8…23b9backed Yes | 10c | 2,007$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x854d…deb0backed Yes | 14c | 2,000$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc481…58d4backed Yes | 6c | 1,862$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 72c | 1,809$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.3 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6393…4b2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,794$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,760$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.28 | 131 | 6.1%8 W · 123 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd4…b665backed Yes | 4c | 1,745$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f9…fdcfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,741$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -5.3wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed Yes | 12c | 1,727$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.17 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…0574backed Yes | 6c | 1,712$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -90.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,704$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.67 | 52 | 19.2%10 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…650dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,683$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2323…5dffbacked Yes | 12c | 1,680$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…d019backed Yes | 9c | 1,627$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c89…3681backed Yes | 13c | 1,622$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 3c | 1,621$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 17c | 1,574$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.17 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,569$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 8c | 1,561$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.01 | 162 | 25.9%42 W · 120 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e8…1eb8backed Yes | 1c | 1,559$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6187…e57fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc851…cd2abacked Yes | 11c | 1,497$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.38 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b5…280cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,484$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +1,025.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 8c | 1,456$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.27 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe277…8e46backed Yes | 4c | 1,450$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | +10.9wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9824…959fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,436$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…acbdbacked Yes | 14c | 1,402$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d77…ebf7backed Yes | 12c | 1,376$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7556…b587backed Yes | 7c | 1,367$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 1c | 1,353$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf5…661dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,350$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 145 | 20.7%30 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20a0…7563backed Yes | 13c | 1,329$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 2c | 1,324$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x998d…d17bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,212$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbf…be73backed Yes | 4c | 1,137$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7168…e537backed Yes | 9c | 1,137$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes | 5c | 1,122$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 62 | 32.3%20 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,119$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.7 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…09d0backed Yes | 9c | 1,117$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 2c | 1,112$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 12c | 1,071$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.15 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aeb…0c42backed Yes | 9c | 1,056$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,043$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.66 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa3b…1e2ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,019$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59c8…3f12backed Yes | 4c | 1,017$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 10c | 1,016$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe348…67e3backed Yes | 6c | 1,000$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b0…b26bbacked Yes | 3c | 999.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.