Middle East · resolved market
Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbfa1cdad9819acdd36bfa2fac3d2f1ff64021c3d4a7459661010ce9ff33cefb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,637,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $819,163
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,637,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 289 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb9f0…42d1backed Yes | 2c | 111,523$2,143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,142.89 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b2…a8dcbacked Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Yes | 2c | 45,070$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.11 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 31,970$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.65 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8102…d50abacked Yes | 2c | 29,860$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.22 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6509…ab24backed Yes | 2c | 24,425$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +201.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0540…98ebbacked Yes | 2c | 23,601$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.42 | 56 | 10.7%6 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…2038backed Yes | 2c | 23,099$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.46 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +200.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 0c | 21,830$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.73 | 171 | 11.7%20 W · 151 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 3c | 21,631$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…3b3bbacked Yes | 2c | 21,004$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.43 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -87.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d0…db7abacked Yes | 2c | 20,966$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.11 | 136 | 17.6%24 W · 112 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 2c | 20,187$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked Yes | 1c | 20,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…a3cdbacked Yes | 1c | 19,787$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.1 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +163.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 19,150$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.89 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 2c | 16,387$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.44 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 1c | 14,999$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.25 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca2…4b79backed Yes | 3c | 14,750$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.55 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 14,299$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.11 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 0c | 13,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 94 | 14.9%14 W · 80 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 2c | 12,971$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.18 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…689bbacked Yes | 2c | 12,929$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.04 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 12,716$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.72 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…0007backed Yes | 2c | 12,392$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 1c | 12,235$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.02 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…e354backed Yes | 2c | 12,226$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…46f2backed Yes | 2c | 12,126$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.65 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 1c | 12,000$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.51 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…f440backed Yes | 2c | 11,760$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.61 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1287…e491backed Yes | 2c | 11,741$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.48 | 47 | 17%8 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…6283backed Yes | 2c | 11,115$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.58 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 1c | 11,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 2c | 10,487$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.26 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…3bd1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb710…6639backed Yes | 2c | 10,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf55c…0afebacked Yes | 2c | 9,837$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f64…a2e0backed Yes | 3c | 9,537$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.63 | 86 | 7%6 W · 80 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b4…4412backed Yes | 2c | 8,968$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed Yes | 2c | 8,907$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.08 | 117 | 30.8%36 W · 81 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 8,359$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.64 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cac…b52ebacked Yes | 2c | 8,212$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 2c | 8,027$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.55 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…bdfebacked Yes | 1c | 7,396$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.89 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 6,945$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.51 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 6,825$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.6 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e7…886ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,545$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.57 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 1c | 6,481$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…26aebacked Yes | 2c | 6,298$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 50 | 10%5 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfea3…f595backed Yes | 2c | 6,001$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…b75abacked Yes | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…d29bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,992$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4b…07cbbacked Yes | 1c | 5,971$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +187.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccaa…705ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,820$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…f9c1backed Yes | 2c | 5,764$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b44…be1ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,593$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.1 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 5,563$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e6…8197backed Yes | 2c | 5,492$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa3…a339backed Yes | 3c | 5,374$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d79…6e71backed Yes | 3c | 5,328$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4637…fd78backed Yes | 2c | 5,327$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.57 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8150…d03fbacked Yes | 2c | 5,246$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…b9c9backed Yes | 2c | 5,146$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.51 | 96 | 5.2%5 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 5,009$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.51 | 199 | 5%10 W · 189 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f52…9fbabacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.18 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…4346backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6a…6d70backed Yes | 2c | 4,920$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…d69fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,901$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.79 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6d…6c4dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,898$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.86 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…ca6abacked Yes | 2c | 4,777$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x788e…3994backed Yes | 2c | 4,760$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.14 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked Yes | 1c | 4,741$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…17ddbacked Yes | 2c | 4,718$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.83 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 2c | 4,682$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.85 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfccc…b157backed Yes | 2c | 4,666$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,658$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.46 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b1…b4adbacked Yes | 2c | 4,489$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…f1adbacked Yes | 1c | 4,482$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.32 | 45 | 0%0 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 2c | 4,450$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.74 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1f…620abacked Yes | 2c | 4,412$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…a9c9backed Yes | 2c | 4,300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 43 | 7%3 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e75…7ee4backed Yes | 2c | 4,228$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 2c | 4,180$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7a…6875backed Yes | 2c | 4,055$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.23 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc45d…2eedbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 191 | 19.9%38 W · 153 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…54c8backed Yes | 3c | 3,950$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -81.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ebc…a21ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,744$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3739…307fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,727$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e93…78bcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,700$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf6…6fc4backed Yes | 2c | 3,660$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…930fbacked Yes | 3c | 3,635$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.29 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…994dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,613$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…3149backed Yes | 1c | 3,574$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd517…5f34backed Yes | 2c | 3,484$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf518…1e76backed Yes | 3c | 3,475$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 2c | 3,472$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…55e8backed Yes | 3c | 3,439$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.18 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd623…ee4fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,409$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.