Middle East · resolved market
Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaca2f1e173994a7b314a32e13db77fb5cd3b909ba15da5bfd159ba987ce06ff3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,713,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,843,309
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,713,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 1,224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 71c | 135,726$95,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39,903.16 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 11c | 127,289$13,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,829.66 | 138 | 23.2%32 W · 106 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…3653backed No | 17c | 55,487$9,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,440.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 24c | 34,328$8,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,219.89 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 74c | 32,801$24,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,527.94 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ef…39c1backed No | 12c | 31,484$3,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,700 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 70c | 25,421$17,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,515.55 | 194 | 49.5%96 W · 98 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…5034backed No | 56c | 24,381$13,707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,707 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 76c | 20,997$15,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,065.65 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 79c | 20,666$16,408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,258.12 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 71c | 18,825$13,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,432.93 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ee…697bbacked No | 35c | 17,990$6,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,294.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 73c | 16,283$11,861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,422.24 | 189 | 29.1%55 W · 134 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 23c | 13,088$3,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,057.3 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 21c | 12,731$2,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,725.31 | 51 | 5.9%3 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4d…f703backed Yes | 78c | 12,300$9,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,675.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 75c | 11,949$9,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,948.89 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc83d…6b9cbacked No | 2c | 11,097$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942a…2170backed No | 0c | 10,640$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…0547backed Yes | 73c | 10,000$7,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,700 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb01…b811backed Yes | 66c | 9,670$6,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,254.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf784…ab48backed No | 2c | 9,634$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.13 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 24c | 9,611$2,308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,308.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 25c | 9,480$2,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,396.33 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6b…17fdbacked No | 13c | 9,286$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,201.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c3…a742backed No | 23c | 9,205$2,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,092 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 52c | 8,219$4,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,909.87 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…6e55backed No | 3c | 8,159$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 24c | 7,886$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.34 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe10e…54debacked No | 9c | 7,773$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab94…f964backed No | 11c | 7,718$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7879…822abacked Yes | 73c | 7,703$5,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064.55 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbad…9c95backed Yes | 77c | 7,500$5,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.99 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -8.3wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd524…2accbacked Yes | 74c | 7,215$5,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,864.75 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 68cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28c…4e10backed No | 13c | 7,109$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef9…7e63backed Yes | 53c | 7,052$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,302.43 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4f…0f33backed No | 28c | 6,990$1,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,968.01 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.0wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 74c | 6,693$4,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,731.81 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…1f21backed No | 16c | 6,250$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…2f76backed No | 26c | 6,108$1,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,565 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…ff0ebacked No | 15c | 6,000$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbec7…22efbacked No | 57c | 5,726$3,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,290.78 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd286…a29dbacked No | 11c | 5,550$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed Yes | 76c | 5,361$4,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.64 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x924f…b186backed No | 11c | 5,134$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fe…50c4backed Yes | 78c | 5,035$3,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,107.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 27c | 5,019$1,361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360.77 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d2…9e1ebacked No | 12c | 4,900$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f8c…90c3backed No | 22c | 4,853$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d8…3dfabacked No | 21c | 4,559$952 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$952.4 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c7…aaaebacked No | 11c | 4,545$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed Yes | 73c | 4,523$3,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.85 | 130 | 22.3%29 W · 101 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x027d…6a30backed No | 17c | 4,466$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ae…809abacked No | 24c | 4,216$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.02 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb952…faa7backed No | 15c | 4,195$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba7f…5036backed No | 12c | 4,125$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x896e…8902backed No | 26c | 4,035$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.05 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed No | 25c | 4,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes | 76c | 4,000$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.99 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…de48backed No | 40c | 3,870$1,538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,537.7 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe14…3bd1backed No | 15c | 3,863$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…f064backed No | 26c | 3,838$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 79c | 3,817$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.87 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed No | 27c | 3,683$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked Yes | 77c | 3,500$2,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 56c | 3,459$1,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,925.54 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 9c | 3,455$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.72 | 106 | 34%36 W · 70 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…d01dbacked Yes | 76c | 3,408$2,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 21c | 3,405$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,686.22 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +15.0wins | +0.20per pick | 19cpaid | +102%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe194…cd47backed Yes | 63c | 3,312$2,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,219.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x135d…1f4bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,177 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +187%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 16c | 3,290$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.45 | 288 | 27.8%80 W · 208 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9c…6fddbacked Yes | 71c | 3,213$2,297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.66 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…87bcbacked No | 18c | 3,177$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a55…eb88backed Yes | 80c | 3,015$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…8826backed Yes | 38c | 2,979$1,137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.87 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 63c | 2,946$1,869 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,868.93 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -10.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf207…17acbacked Yes | 69c | 2,941$2,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.66 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…eb27backed No | 38c | 2,817$1,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.07 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 1c | 2,740$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2808…16babacked Yes | 74c | 2,726$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.86 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…d2f6backed Yes | 74c | 2,683$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed No | 23c | 2,662$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.77 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df9…f5ddbacked No | 11c | 2,586$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab5…f221backed Yes | 80c | 2,531$2,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8f…3e24backed Yes | 79c | 2,520$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae4…bdfebacked No | 12c | 2,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…0023backed Yes | 61c | 2,496$1,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5d…19f1backed No | 20c | 2,485$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x196a…8c21backed No | 20c | 2,484$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd4…f3b6backed Yes | 61c | 2,455$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$948.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5c…657ebacked No | 25c | 2,448$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 42c | 2,404$1,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.66 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +136.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…cabcbacked Yes | 80c | 2,395$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1ff1backed No | 3c | 2,390$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd442…8a22backed No | 11c | 2,318$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…9800backed Yes | 65c | 2,308$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.69 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…5661backed No | 20c | 2,246$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9e…1606backed Yes | 79c | 2,217$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78a…cd4bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,200$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,145 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.30per pick | 7cpaid | +811.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US not strike Iran by January 31, 2026?this page
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 12, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 13, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 15, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 16, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 17, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 18, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 19, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 20, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 21, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 22, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 24, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 25, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 26, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 27, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 28, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 29, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 30, 2026 (ET)?No won
- Will the US next strike Iran on January 31, 2026 (ET)?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.